La Liga xG Tips: Barça and Sevilla to prepare for European return in Gameweek 27

“Three victories on the spin have kept Barça in the top four while sending them through in Europe, and Xavi’s side should be confident against Elche despite their opponents’ recent home recovery.”

Sevilla to keep up the pressure

Alavés v Sevilla
Friday, 20:00
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After an impressive derby display last weekend, Sevilla can ramp up the pressure on league leaders Real Madrid by at least temporarily reducing the gap to three points. Opponents Sevilla haven’t been the worst at home, with a 1.26 xGA average suggesting this won’t be a walkover, but Infogol’s model still backs Julen Lopetegui’s visitors to get the job done at Mendizorrotza.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 9.4017/2

Villarreal to prolong unbeaten run

Osasuna v Villarreal
Saturday, 13:00
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A run of five wins from six means Villarreal still have every chance of reaching the Champions League through their league position, but they’ll need to improve on a shaky away record after underperforming their xG to win just three of 12 on the road. A tally of 13 goals from 20.1 xGF can help explain the form, but Infogol backs them to get back on track at El Sadar on Saturday.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.809/1

Getafe to leapfrog Espanyol

Espanyol v Getafe
Saturday, 15:15
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Getafe’s long wait for an away win could finally end on Saturday, in what is a big game for two teams hovering dangerously close to the bottom three. Quique Sánchez Flores’ side got their first win of any kind this season against the same opponents at the end of October, and they’re narrow favourites to complete a double over Vicente Moreno’s men and move one point above them.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 21.0020/1

Valencia to keep Granada looking over their shoulder

Valencia v Granada
Saturday, 17:30
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While it was important for Granada to avoid defeat against Cádiz last week, a dismal attacking display ensured they are far from out of the woods as far as the relegation fight is concerned. Hosts Valencia haven’t been as daunting at home as in previous campaigns, shipping four to Barcelona in their last league game at the Mestalla, but Infogol still backs Pepe Bordalás’ side to claim victory.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1

Real Madrid to stay unbeaten at home

Real Madrid v Real Sociedad
Saturday, 20:00
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Real Madrid’s unbeaten home run stayed intact with a convincing victory over Alavés last month, and Infogol’s model backs them to extend it to 14 games by taking the points against a Real Sociedad side whose own top four homes could suffer a blow with defeat. La Real haven’t beaten Los Blancos in the league since May 2019, and the run is expected to continue at the Bernabéu this weekend.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1

Cádiz to miss opportunity to push towards safety

Cádiz v Rayo Vallecano
Sunday, 13:00
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While Rayo’s losing run continued last weekend, their performance against Real Madrid was more promising and Infogol’s model expects them to have just about enough to win at Cádiz. The hosts are running out of time to launch a survival bid, and a failure to follow three successive draws with a victory against a team in horrible form is unlikely to offer much encouragement.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 14.50 or 1-2 @ 12.0011/1

Barcelona to seal fourth straight win

Elche v Barcelona
Sunday, 15:15
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Three victories on the spin have kept Barça in the top four while sending them through in Europe, and Xavi’s side should be confident against Elche despite their opponents’ recent home recovery. The hosts have been defensively competent at Martínez Valero, losing just twice all season, but Infogol’s model backs Barcelona to complete a league double after their nervy 3-2 win in December.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-3 @ 11.0010/1

Celta to improve on shaky home form

Celta Vigo v Mallorca
Sunday, 17:30
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A return of just 15 points from 13 home games explains why Celta are mid-table rather than any higher, but struggling Mallorca can offer them an opportunity to earn a rare victory at Balaídos. The reverse fixture ended goalless, with both sides creating a similar amount in xG terms, and victory for the hosts can widen the gap between two teams whose numbers suggest they should be closer in the table.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 8.007/1 or 2-1 @ 9.208/1

Atléti to open up top four race

Real Betis v Atlético Madrid
Sunday, 20:00
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After climbing to third in early December, Real Betis could drop out of the Champions League spots for the first time in three months if they lose to fifth-place Atléti on Sunday. The champions won the reverse fixture convincingly, while Betis’ derby defeat last weekend was what they deserved, and even a healthy 1.66 xGF average home might not be enough to carry Manuel Pellegrini’s men to victory.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 14.0013/1

Levante’s mini-revival to end

Athletic Bilbao v Levante
Monday, 20:00
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A three-game unbeaten run has given Levante a glimmer of hope in their survival bid, but they are fast running out of time and anything other than a win at San Mamés will keep them in the mire. Unfortunately for Alessio Lisci’s side, the hosts are averaging just 0.88 xGA at home – one of the stingiest returns in the league – and are expected to take all three points on Monday.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 7.6013/2