Ste Tudor picks out the gems from a packed international schedule, one that might see history made.
“When he was a slip of a lad, Paul McCartney imagined 64 to be an awfully long passage of time and it really is. Does history await the Dragons?”
Between this Thursday and next Tuesday there are 58 international fixtures that feature at least one European nation. Of these, 49 are friendlies while in the Nations League, Estonia, Cyprus, Kazakhstan and Moldova battle it out to join League D. It is the World Cup Play-Off semi-finals however that most grab our attention as eight teams – all of them Euro participants last summer – compete to get within 90 minutes of Qatar 2022.
All four games entice, and we will get to the rest, but it’s a no-brainer to start with Wales, who host a tough but beatable Austria in Cardiff this week dreaming of reaching their first World Cup for 64 years. When he was a slip of a lad, Paul McCartney imagined 64 to be an awfully long passage of time and it really is. Does history await the Dragons?
Please take me home
Realistically, Rob Page’s men were never going to better Belgium and top Group E and their best chance of reaching Qatar was always to finish runner-up, ideally in second spot to secure a home tie this week. This they did by impressively holding Belgium to a draw in their final commitment back in November.
Which means this opportunity is the accumulation of a year’s planning, 12 months of ground-out results and navigating their two best players – Aaron Ramsey and Gareth Bale – through a succession of injuries. Ahead of this crucial clash both are available but with doubts over their fitness. It was ever thus.
Typically, the Rangers midfielder and Real Madrid megastar find ways and means to perform when it matters and they need to do so again here, especially with keeper Danny Ward and striker Kieffer Moore out, both big losses.
Moore’s absence is compensated to a degree by the return of Rabbi Matondo after a year’s exile because the 21-year-old winger is flying in the Belgian top-flight with Cercle Bruges. It is hoped too that Page finds room for Brennan Johnson, the young attacking midfielder who has previously only made cameos for his country. Since Wales’ last fixture, Johnson has enjoyed a quantum leap of development, scoring eight in 15 in the Championship for Nottingham Forest.
Austria have David Alaba, Bayern’s Marcel Sabitzer, and Marko Arnautovic and of course took Italy to extra-time last summer in the Euro knock-outs. Yet their qualifying campaign has been a mixed bag with a 5-2 defeat in Israel one heck of a reality check. As stated, they are tough but beatable.
Two factors have Wales down as slender favourites. They haven’t been beaten in Wales for 16 games and Cardiff will be absolutely rocking on Thursday. They also have a seriously under-rated defensive set-up, keeping clean sheets in 14 of their last 25 matches.
Wales are 2.7 to keep another clean sheet when it really counts
Turkish delight?
The other three Play-Off games are fascinating propositions all and for very different reasons with Portugal’s hosting of Turkey standing out as a potential upset.
After failing to especially impress at the Euros last year, A Selecao made hard work of their World Cup qualifying campaign and they are weakened here by the absence of their first-choice centre-back pairing of Ruben Dias and Pepe.
Turkey meanwhile, are improving under new boss Stefan Kuntz, putting behind them a miserable Euros and a 6-1 hammering last year at the hands of Holland. Their danger man is winger Kerem Akturkoglu who has scored three in four for his country while often running the show for Galatasaray and though CR7 and company are understandably favourites, at a generous sevens Turkey are tempting indeed.
The winner of that one faces either Italy or North Macedonia, or to simplify it, Italy.
Granted, the Azzurri will be without Leonardo Bonucci while Giorgio Chiellini is not yet back up to maximum b**tard mode following injury, but this is still the European champions who have lost only once in their last 41 games, a team that conceded every 190 minutes throughout 2021.
Up front, Domenico Berardi and Ciro Immobile are both scoring for fun for their respective clubs, sharing 35 Serie A goals between them, and Immobile’s injury last winter partly explains Italy’s failure to top Group C, necessitating this detour.
North Macedonia won plenty of admirers last summer, but this would be their miracle.
Immobile is 2.5 to have one or more shots on target in each half
The last of the Play-Offs sees Sweden take on Czech Republic, and this is a tricky one to call due to the Swedes generally underwhelming in the latter half of their qualifying campaign. Janne Andersson’s side however are reliably decent in Stockholm, last losing at home all the way back in September 2020 but what nags is their lack of firepower since their chief goal-source Alexander Isak has endured a drought in La Liga. The highly-rated 22-year-old has found the net only once since last October.
The Czechs by contrast are unbeaten in five, scoring every 32 minutes in these fixtures. 71% of their goals were converted in the second half.
England expects
Of the bountiful number of friendlies this week we are naturally drawn to England’s double-header with Switzerland and Ivory Coast and naturally too, so much of the focus beforehand has fallen on Gareth Southgate’s squad selection. Sancho, Rashford and Kyle Walker are all out while there is a surprising call-up for Crystal Palace’s Marc Guehi. Subsequent withdrawals have also allowed for the welcome inclusion of Kyle Walker-Peters and Tyrick Mitchell.
Yet while there is always a novelty interest in seeing debutants break through perhaps that should be put on hold until the Elephants come to town, Wilfried Zaha, Maxwel Cornet and all.
On Thursday, against a Swiss side ranked 14th in the world we can anticipate Southgate going strong and going familiar, the main objective being to pick up momentum again after scoring an astonishing 30 goals in the latter half of 2021.
That means three at the back with Henderson and Rice alternating sitting in midfield. That means too Harry Kane to start, the Tottenham striker boasting 14 goals in his last 10 international outings.
Roll the dice on Harry Kane to be first goalscorer v Switzerland @ 3.7
Source: BetFair Tips
