Friday Football Tips: Back Italy to attack early

Italy v San Marino
Friday 28 May, 19:45 BST kick-off
Live on Sky Sports red button

And so the preparations for Euro 2020 begin in earnest with the pre-tournament international friendlies kicking off as Italy play host to minnows San Marino.

It’s a local derby of sorts, with the tiny mini-state being totally enclosed within Italy, and the gap between the two could hardly be bigger, with the hosts seventh in the world playing the side rock bottom of the FIFA rankings at 210.

The game in Cagliari on the island of Sardinia will obviously be a one-sided affair, but it’s an important warm-up for the Italians, with Roberto Mancini looking to work on shape and selection ahead of the big tournament next month.

The Azzurri will be looking to maintain their momentum heading into Euro 2020, with the side on an impressive 25-game unbeaten run currently – with their last defeat coming in September 2018.

So what do we expect? Well it should be a pretty comprehensive victory as San Marino haven’t scored for the last 10 games and have now played 13 away matches without finding the net.

Italy won 8-0 in the last meeting and they usually feast on teams ranked outside the top 100, leading by at least two goals at half-time of their last four, taking the lead inside 20 minutes in three of those.

San Marino have lost their last five matches against top 10 sides by an average of six-and-a-half goals, with their last five away seeing them losing by at least two goals at half-time and at least five goals at full-time.

As you’d expect in a game with 1.011/100 favourites and 41.040/1 outsiders there is precious little value to be had in most markets.

Italy could easily stick in six, seven or more, but if Mancini makes a lot of changes and they struggle to get going then under 6.5 goals at 1.910/11 represents a touch of value.

England beat San Marino 5-0 at home – it’s 2.6313/8 for there to be under 5.5 goals in this game.

The big issue here, for our purposes anyway, is whether Italy come out firing, put a few goals in then ease down with second half changes, or whether San Marino make it tough but tire in the end, conceding some late goals.

Interestingly, in heavy away defeats against England, Slovenia, Belgium, Cyprus, Czech Republic and Germany, San Marino conceded more goals in the first half than the second.

In this first friendly ahead of the Euros, it’s easy to see how Italy’s starting XI can bag a few goals, but then take their foot off the gas with multiple changes in the second half.

Given it’s happened plenty of times before, it’s worth siding with the goals to come in the first half at 2.89/5 in what could be the only real value bet in the game.