Football Tips: Best bets for FA Cup final and more from the podcast team

On this week’s Football…Only Bettor host Kevin Hatchard and guests Mark O’Haire and Mark Stinchcombe discuss the FA Cup final, PFA Player of the Year and recommend their best bets for big games in the Premier League, the Championship play-offs and more.

Look out for this week’s podcast treble at boosted odds – last week the team fell one wager short of a 7/1 winner – as well as the weekend naps. Listen here and read the summary of their bets below.

Underdogs United look value against Liverpool on Thursday night

Manchester United v Liverpool – Thursday, 20:15

Mark O’Haire: I really like the price on United 2.982/1 as underdogs. This is probably United’s last match against a quality opponent before the Europa League final. They will also be motivated by the chance to hurt Liverpool’s top four chances. Liverpool have struggled at Old Trafford down the years. I’m backing United with a quarter goal headstart at 1.855/6 on the Asian handicap.

Mark Stinchcombe: As a Liverpool fan, our defence frightens me. The potency of Bruno Fernandes and Edinson Cavani will cause them problems. I’m on 0-0 again at around 15.014/1 on the Exchange. United would be happy with that result and four of the last nine between these two have been goalless. United plus a quarter of a goal is a good bet too in what’s likely to be a cagey game.

Chelsea are a generous price to win FA Cup final

Chelsea v Leicester – 16:30, Saturday

Mark Stinchcombe: I expect this final to be good viewing, with two teams that want to play football up against each other. I do think 1.9720/21 is too big for Chelsea and an overreaction to their defeat to Arsenal in midweek. At that price Chelsea, who have won 17 of 25 games under Thomas Tuchel, are a good bet. It’s phenomenal that they’ve kept 18 clean sheets in that time. I expect a 1-0 or 2-0 win.

Mark O’Haire: I agree that Chelsea are an attractive price. Leicester have injury problems, with Jonny Evans a doubt. It’s just two clean sheet in the 13 matches for the Foxes. Jamie Vardy isn’t scoring and Youri Tielemans hasn’t been his usual self recently. Chelsea are stronger in every area. I’d take Chelsea at 1.9520/21 or above but if you want a meatier price then Chelsea to win and under 3.5 goals is a bet.

Kevin Hatchard: I like a goalscorer bet and am interested in Mason Mount to score any time at 10/3. He’s a big game player who usually turns up. Timo Verner for an assist, when the anytime assist market is up, would appeal too.

Premier League – This weekend’s bets

Newcastle v Man City – Friday, 20:00

MS: City have had a free midweek and will want to get back into the winning groove here as newly-crowned champions. They won’t go too gung-ho and should take a fairly tight win. City to win and under 3.5 goals at 1.9310/11 is my bet.

Brighton v West Ham – Saturday, 20:00

MO: There’s plenty riding on this for West Ham and a top four finish is still a possibility for them. I think we’ll get goals here. Brighton are safe and could play with more freedom this weekend. The reverse game was 2-2 and I’m looking forward to this match. Both teams to score at 1.845/6 is the way to go.

MS: I was surprised to see under 2.5 the favourite and like over 2.5 at odds-against. That bet would have landed in 12 of West Ham’s last 17 games.

Serie A – Derby d’Italia tips and more

Juventus v Inter Milan – Saturday, 17:00

MO: This is always a big game in Italy between bitter rivals. Antonio Conte has said champions Inter will keep fighting for the rest of the season. The opportunity to leave Juventus outside the top four will be big motivation for Inter. Juve are under so much pressure and are not a happy camp. A bet on Inter plus half a goal at 1.855/6 is massive in my eyes.

Parma v Sassuoulo – Sunday, 17:00

MO: Sassuolo are trying to get into Europe. They’ve had a great season and are an exciting team going forward. I like them a lot. Parma have 18 defeats in 24 and have given up. Sassuolo with a -0.75 handicap at 1.84/5 appeals to me.

Bundesliga – Bayern chase records while relegation battle rages on

Hertha Berlin v Koln – Saturday, 14:30

MS: A really big game in the relegation battle. It will be tense but neither team can afford not to attack. They can’t defend either. I’m hoping that we see a lot of goals and am going with over 2.5 at just over evens. The last eight meetings between the teams have seen 27 goals.

Freiburg v Bayern Munich – Saturday, 14:30

KH: Robert Lewandowski on 39 goals so one short of Gerd Müller’s record. I quite like Lewandowski to get a couple here.

MS: I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a brace. Bayern to win and both teams to score is 2.111/10 and, given Bayern are trying to help Lewandowski get the record, I think they’ll go all-out attack. They’re chasing the record for team goals in a Bundesliga season too. They’ve only kept four clean sheets at home all season.

MO: First legs are all about a reset. You can get completely different performances from the regular season. I tend to back unders in first legs. Since 2017, 75% of play-off semi-finals have gone under 2.5 goals.

Bournemouth v Brentford – Monday, 18:00

MO: A really interesting match between probably the two most talented teams in the Championship. Brentford boss Thomas Frank should be too shrewd for Bournemouth’s Jonathan Woodgate. Brentford have more quality but we never get to see them at their best in the play-offs. I edge towards getting through tie and backing under 2.5 goals in this match.

Barnsley v Swansea – Monday, 20:15

MO: Fascinating tie. Barnsley have been extraordinary, taking 74 points from 39 games since Valerien Ismael came in. Over two legs I fancy Barnsley to get through but the price isn’t appealing. Swansea have the potential to up their game when it matters. I’d be backing under 2.5 goals again.

Promotion treble at 33/1

MS: I’m happy to be with Brentford in the Championship – with their quality they’re a Premier League team in all but name.

In League One, I’m with Oxford. They play Blackpool in the semi-final and I’m confident that Oxford have the momentum and more goals in them than their opponents.

In League Two, Morecambe have been the next best team in the division in the last 30 games. They’d be my bet to go up.

Back all those in a treble at 33/1.

PFA Player of the Year Betting – City stars dominate

MS: I backed Ruben Dias so am pleased to seem him at odds-on now. But if you’re looking for a cover option than Ilkay Gundogan 20.019/1 is a good one. He was pivotal in the run that saw City pull ahead of their title rivals. He was a driving force.