We’re kicking off the weekend in France, as high-flying Lens visit Nantes, and Kev’s backing the visitors.
Visitors have been the better side
Nantes v Lens
Friday 10 December, 20:00
Basel did their bit for us last night in Switzerland, but Qarabag let us down in a 3-0 defeat, nixing our BTTS bet.
Toblerone in tow (other triangular chocolate is available), we’ll zoom to France, because there’s an intriguing Friday night clash in prospect between Nantes and Lens in Ligue 1.
Lens are having an excellent season under talented coach Franck Haise, and they were moments away from beating league leaders PSG last weekend, only for Gini Wijnaldum to snatch a late leveller. That game was a truer reflection of Lens’ quality this season than their recent run of draws. Although RCL have only picked up a point from their last four road matches, it’s worth considering that Montpellier, Lyon and Brest are all tough opponents.
Lens have won at European contenders Marseille and Monaco this season, and they have only lost four league games this term. According to Infogol’s Expected Goals figures, Lens have won the xG battle in 13 of their 17 games, so they are in the top five on merit.
Nantes won 1-0 at Lorient last time out, but that was their first league win since late October. Antoine Kombouare’s men have lost seven of their 17 league matches, and they have lost the xG battle in five of their last six. Now, the xG figures aren’t the be-all and end-all (they’re a weapon, but not the entire arsenal), but they suggest that Nantes’ performances haven’t been on the same level at Lens’ this season. If you look at Expected Points, Lens’ position of fifth and Nantes’ position of 12th are about right.
As a result, it seems a bit off-kilter that these two are dead-level in the Match Odds market, so I’ll back Lens Draw No Bet here at 1.981/1. If the visitors win, we get a winner at close to evens, but a draw sees our stake returned.
Source: BetFair Tips
