Shrimps can find a way to end Solihull’s cup dream
Morecambe 2.26/5 v Solihull Moors 3.711/4; the draw 3.9
BBC Digital platforms 12.30 kick-off
Having successfully tipped Solihull to win at Scunthorpe in the last round, at 4.03/1, can lightning strike twice? Scunthorpe were struggling through a Covid affected season. Now the Moors have had their own case and all had to isolate. They postponed their most recent three scheduled games.
That sets them back even further, after already being at a disadvantage having started their season later than their League Two hosts. Maybe they will be fresh of mind now, but their fitness won’t be 100 per cent.
In the last round, midfielder Stephen Gleeson bookended the win with penalties at either end of the game, with defender Krystian Pearce also scoring. Those two former league players offer the experience on which boss Jimmy Shan can pin further hopes of an upset.
Midfielder Joe Sbarra, 21, will be eager to use this as a shop window to rekindle his Football League dream, having featured for Burton in the past.
The Moors’ win at the Iron was just their second against league opposition in the FA Cup, say Opta, who add they are in the second round for the third season out of four. They are gaining a bit of name for themselves, something of which home boss Derek Adams will be wary.
The Shrimps saw off Maldon & Tiptree, who made the first round for the second season running, in the last round, 1-0. Adam Phillips bagged the penalty. Opta point out that the visitors have never made the third round, but that Morecambe have only done so four times, and, as a league side, have lost two of four previous ties to non-league sides.
Which way will this swing? The hosts have slipped from their high-rising start to the season and will know that Moors have ambitions to rise out of the National League and that perhaps their mid-table position is false.
Morecambe had 21 shots at Maldon, so should have won more easily. Cole Stockton, Carlos Mendes Gomes and Aaron Wildig will want to assert their authority and wear down the visiting defence quickly. Expect a fast start, if you’re watching live via the BBC. Morecambe, with one win at home, could be vulnerable. They have three draws, which here is priced juicily at 3.9. The Moors will fancy forcing one. It could be worth backing that and looking to cash out midway through the second half, but I fancy the hosts to pinch victory.
Exiles’ cup experiences can keep Salford at bay
Newport County 2.6613/8 v Salford City 2.89/5; the draw 3.814/5
13:00 kick-off
Frequently, when a manager talks about Salford City they insist they are League Two winners in waiting, based on their squad. Once that squad gels for new boss Richie Wellens, who propelled Swindon to the summit last season.
So how do Newport, cup kings of recent years, keep the noisy upstarts down? The Exiles have themselves enlarged their squad, enabling them to take their own crack at the League Two summit.
FA Cup prize money might be half compared to last year’s, but every penny still counts if the Exiles are going to keep up the promotion push – and their squad intact.
Micky Flynn‘s men have made the FA Cup third round in each of the last three seasons, state Opta, their longest run since five consecutive years starting in 1948-49.
They continued their cup exploits this season, defeating Watford and losing only on penalties to Newcastle. Tristan Abrahams, 21, made his mark with a goal in both, showing Norwich what they were missing after releasing him just over 18 months ago. This season, he has made a starting berth his own as Newport transition away from reliance on Padraig Amond.
Salford have made little impression in either cup in their two Football League seasons so far. Opta state they are unbeaten in their two games with Newport, winning 2-1 last season and drawing 0-0 in the EFL Trophy this season, both at Rodney Parade. I think that’s a bit of red herring as they try to reach the third round for the first time, because right now in League Two they have only two away wins from five. Furthermore, Newport at home have six wins and a draw.
Ashley Hunter and Ian Henderson have a minor mountain to climb if they are to help the Ammies win. The visitors have only drawn three blanks in front of goal all season, so this could be a game with goals, but it is a great opportunity for Newport to continue their cup glories. In previous years, they have had plenty of replays (most of them away), so in one sense the draw price of 3.814/5 is tempting. But with the Exiles favourites “to qualify” at odds on, it seems better value to think they can do so in 90 minutes.
Latics in the mood to add to Bradford woes
Bradford 2.447/5 v Oldham 3.02/1; the draw 3.814/5
BBC Digital Platforms
15:00 kick-off
Bantams fans were left deeply unimpressed by Tuesday’s defeat at Leyton Orient, from which boss Stuart McCall said they deserved a point. Quality on the pitch, argue some fans, is in short supply as they slipped to fifth bottom in League Two. McCall stressed they “needed a win” and named this FA Cup tie as the target.
Unfortunately, the injury list hardly gets any shorter. Defender Reece Staunton returned, but pulled a hamstring. Striker Billy Clarke came back in, surviving the hour’s play intended, while midfielder Harry Pritchard remains unfit and Gareth Evans called his boss on the day with personal issues.
Clayton Donaldson could do with finding the goal form that took him from Crewe to Brentford then Birmingham, but not everything can rest on the 36-year-old. Bradford took a point at home to Exeter recently, and beat bottom club Southend. They stuck seven goals past Tonbridge in the last round of the FA Cup. Those three are the only League Two and FA Cup games they have scored in during the past eight.
Oldham, meanwhile, have found some form – particularly away – to leapfrog their hosts in League Two. Struggling for the early part of the season, Harry Kewell‘s men have notched wins at Barrow and Exeter in the past week, scoring six times and conceding four. Hopefully that will have appeased fans, as owner Abdallah Lemsagam hoped in a video message after defeat at Scunthorpe.
He described Kewell as a “workaholic” and clearly Danny Rowe‘s form has helped, with three goals in four games including the FA Cup win at Hampton. If Ben Garrity or Connor McAleny can support him by notching further goals themselves, the Latics have a fine chance of winning at 3.02/1.
The visitors have won five of their last six away games in the FA Cup, emphasise Opta, who add that the Latics, in all competitions, have won five of their last six encounters with the Bantams.
Robins to sing against Railwaymen
Cheltenham 3.39/4 v Crewe 2.26/5; the draw 4.03/1
BBC Digital Platforms
15:00 kick-off
Could Cheltenham, second in League Two and usually unbackably short at home, land a blow on Crewe? The Railwaymen have lost five on the road and won two and, over the past six games overall, won just twice with four defeats.
But that quintet of away defeats have come at teams in the top nine in League One, including leaders Hull. Forgivable for mid-tablers.
Dave Artell has reshaped substantially since Crewe rose out of League Two 18 months ago, ex-Colchester striker Mikael Mandron now leading the line and goals tally with four. But he won’t be impressed that a defender is second top scorer, however much he rates Harry Pickering.
The visitors will find the Robins a far stiffer proposition than Bolton, whom they conquered 3-2 in the last round, and who are still finding their feet after relegation to League Two.
Michael Duff‘s men rely principally on Andy Williams for goals – he has five – with many other players contributing, from the experienced Reuben Reid to Finn Azaz, 20, on loan from West Brom. They are the division’s third highest scorers.
Four wins at home puts them in a strong position going into this game and while they probably don’t want the distraction of a massive cup run, the prize money will come in handy. I don’t think Crewe justify their price of 2.26/5 and Chris Hussey, Williams Boyle and Charlie Raglan at the back deserve the benefit of the doubt to head off whatever the visitors can throw at them, while letting those in front of them engineer a win. As Opta point out, featuring in the FA Cup third round is something of a rarity for Crewe of late, who did so last season but, before that, not since 2008-09.
Source: BetFair Tips
