It’s the Club World Cup final between Chelsea and Palmeiras on Saturday and Dan Fitch thinks that it will be a low scoring match, that could head into extra time.
Chelsea 1.715/7 v Palmeiras 5.69/2; The Draw 4.03/1
Saturday 12 February, 16:30
Live on Channel 4
Chelsea labour to final of elusive trophy
Chelsea have the chance to add another piece of silverware to their collection on Saturday, when they take on Palmeiras in the Club World Cup final.
When they last competed for this honour back in 2012, Chelsea were beaten 1-0 by Corinthians. The Club World Cup is one of the few trophies that Chelsea have failed to pick up during the Roman Abramovich era.
Chelsea started the competition at the semi-final stage, beating the Saudi Arabian club Al Hilal 1-0 on Wednesday. The Champions League holders went 1-0 up in the first-half through Romelu Lukaku, but though they dominated possession, Chelsea couldn’t get a second and endured a nervous finish.
Thomas Tuchel missed the semi-final with COVID and is a doubt for the final. The German manager is without the injured Reece James and Ben Chilwell.
Reigning South American champions take revenge
Palmeiras also entered the competition at the semi-final stage, beating Al Ahly of Egypt 2-0.
The Brazilians have won the Copa Libertadores in each of the last two seasons. In last season’s Club World Cup, they lost in the semi-finals, before being beaten on penalties by Al Ahly in the third place play-off.
Palmeiras gained revenge on Al Ahly, thanks to goals from Raphael Veiga and Dudu, either side of the break. Veiga was the Palmeiras top scorer last season, with 18 goals from his attacking midfield position.
The Portuguese coach Abel Ferreira has added to his reputation since joining Palmeiras in 2020 and was named as the South American Coach of the Year in 2021. Ferreira is likely to field an unchanged side from the semi-final.
Chelsea form gives pause for thought
Chelsea are the 1.715/7 favourites, with the draw at 4.03/1 and Palmeiras at 5.69/2.
The Club World Cup has been won by a European team in each of the eight seasons, since Chelsea’s loss to Corinthians. Given the dominance of European teams, Chelsea’s price to win in 90 minutes seems reasonable, but both the form of the Londoners and Palmeiras’ recent record in cup competitions, gives pause for thought.
Chelsea have got into a habit of drawing, with seven of their last 14 Premier League games ending in a stalemate (W5 L2). They needed extra time to beat Plymouth 2-1 in the FA Cup last weekend and their victory over Al Hilal was hardly convincing. This game could well be tight and it’s the draw at 4.03/1 that offers the most value.
Low scoring match likely
A safer bet than backing Chelsea and available at a similar price, is under 2.5 goals at 1.684/6. It’s landed in each of Chelsea’s last six games and also in four of Palmeiras’ five games in 2022, of which the first four were against low level opposition in Brazil.
With neither team finding scoring easy, the 0-0 half-time draw is another bet to consider at 2.6813/8. Backing ‘No’ in the both teams to score option, will give you odds of 1.715/7.
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Betfair Ambassador and former Brazil legend Rivaldo has given us his exclusive thoughts on the match – check out his latest column
Source: BetFair Tips
