Chelsea v Eintracht Frankfurt
Thursday 09 May, 20:00
Live on BT Sport
Sarri defying the narrative at Stamford Bridge
From the moment that Maurizio Sarri arrived at Chelsea, there have been doubters, and his reign has been beset by suggestions that he isn’t the right man for the job. He has no Plan B, he is too stubborn, he selects the same players too often. The Neapolitan’s own fans have chanted against him this term, and yet he is a couple of results from delivering a successful maiden campaign in England.
The former Napoli boss has already reached one cup final, Sunday’s comprehensive 3-0 victory against Watford has nailed down Champions League qualification, and a 1-1 draw in the cauldron that is Eintracht Frankfurt’s Commerzbank Arena has put Chelsea on track to reach the Europa League final in Baku.
Chelsea showed their quality in Germany last week, as they shrugged off the concession of a first-half Luka Jovic goal, and gradually took control. Frankfurt couldn’t press as effectively as usual, and the Blues had space to play. The West London giants are still unbeaten in the UEL, they have still only conceded eight goals across the entire tournament, and they still have the tournament’s top scorer in ten-goal hero Olivier Giroud.
Chelsea have won every home game they have played in this season’s Europa League, and if you stretch back into their last campaign in the competition (they won it in 2013), they have won their last nine UEL games at Stamford Bridge. In all competitions, Chelsea have put together a nine-match unbeaten run on home soil, and they have won seven of those matches.
Callum Hudson-Odoi and Antonio Rudiger are definitely out, while N’Golo Kante is struggling with a hamstring problem. It’s unclear whether star player Eden Hazard will be benched again, although with UCL qualification now secure, it would be a bizarre move to ditch the Belgian.
Tired Frankfurt are stumbling down the final straight
Eintracht Frankfurt’s campaign under new coach Adi Hutter couldn’t really have started in a less impressive fashion. In the Austrian’s first competitive game in charge, Frankufrt were eviscerated on their own turf by Bayern Munich, beaten 5-0 in the Supercup. Hutter’s pressing game clearly wasn’t understood by his players at that stage, and there were wide open spaces for the German champions to exploit. Worse was to follow, as the Eagles’ grip on the DFB Cup trophy was loosened in the very first round by fourth-tier side Ulm.
Hutter’s ambitious project was failing in its infancy, but to his immense credit he has turned a combative and solid group of players into one of the most thrilling attacking units in the Bundesliga. Frankfurt won all six group games in the UEL, and dumped out Champions League combatants Shakhtar Donetsk, Inter Milan and Benfica.
Frankfurt are also in fourth spot in the Bundesliga, two games from qualifying for the Champions League, but like a long-distance runner tying up yards from the finish line they are running out of steam. The absence of French striker Sebastien Haller has reduced their effectiveness in attack, and Hutter’s high-intensity football is taking its toll.
Frankfurt were shredded 6-1 at Bayer Leverkusen on Sunday (the scoring was completed in the first 36 minutes), as Hutter’s attempt to rejig and rotate his team failed spectacularly. It means the German side have taken just two points from their last four league matches, and they haven’t won a game since they beat Benfica in the quarter-finals of the UEL. Transfer chief Fredi Bobic insists fatigue isn’t a factor, that playing so many vital games is something that generates “positive stress”, but the evidence on the field suggests otherwise.
Ante Rebic returns from suspension, and will partner Jovic, who scored in the first leg. The young Serbian has now scored nine UEL goals and has struck 18 times in the Bundesliga.
Chelsea too short for second-leg win
I can understand why Chelsea are favourites to win the second leg, given their overall home form and their record at Stamford Bridge in this competition, but [1.38] is a very skinny price for them to win. It shouldn’t be ignored that Frankfurt have won in Marseille, Rome and Milan this season, and their only defeat in the Europa League was in the first leg at Benfica.
Chelsea may well win, but I can’t get excited about that price against such strong opponents.
Frankfurt to strike as they seek the final
Eintracht Frankfurt have scored in every single Europa League match this season, they haven’t drawn a blank in any competition on the road since mid-February, and with Rebic back in their attack they will create chances.
The first leg was a pretty lively affair, and I expect Thursday’s denouement to be even more intense. I’ll back Both Teams To Score at [1.93].
Giroud to make his mark again
Olivier Giroud has been outstanding in this competition, scoring all different types of goals and setting up others as well. I believe Chelsea will make plenty of chances, and Giroud is likely to put them away. The World Cup winner is trading at [2.22] to score, and I’ll happily snap up that price.
Source: BetFair Tips
