Alex Keble looks ahead to Wednesday’s third round of Champions League group matches and predicts Liverpool will struggle against Crvena Zvezda…
“However, Spurs must be wary of how far forward Davies roams. 40% of PSV’s attacks go down their right flank because Hirving Lozano is such an important playmaker for the Dutch side; he has scored eight league goals this season and grabbed an assist in his last Champions League outing.”
PSV v Tottenham
17:55, Live on BT Sport 3
PSV have won all nine of their domestic games this season but are struggling with the transition to underdog status in the Champions League; they haven’t won in ten, thanks in part to their average possession going down from 54.2% in the Eredivisie to 36.8% in Europe. A similar issue should emerge this evening, with Ben Davies the key man at both ends.
PSV will sit in a narrow blockade, mimicking their setup for a 2-1 defeat at home to Inter Milan earlier in the group. Consequently Spurs will be relying on the crossing ability of their full-backs to work around the shell – particularly given that Mauricio Pochettino’s team are struggling for tempo or fluency of late. Davies should come out on top in his one-on-one with Denzel Dumfries, who failed to make a single tackle or interception against Inter.
However, Spurs must be wary of how far forward Davies roams. Forty percent of PSV’s attacks go down their right flank because Hirving Lozano is such an important playmaker for the Dutch side; he has scored eight league goals this season and grabbed an assist in his last Champions League outing. Ultimately Spurs should have enough control of the game to halt Lozano on the counter-attack.
Borussia Dortmund v Atletico Madrid
20:00, Live on BT Sport Extra 2
Across their last six consecutive wins Lucien Favre’s Dortmund have scored 26 goals; their new coach’s transition to a more patient, possession style of football is working superbly so far. They don’t press high and build slowly from the back, before suddenly bursting into life in the final third via overloads in central areas and overlapping full-backs.
Tonight, the ultra-defensive Atletico Madrid will look to absorb pressure in a deep block with the aim of keeping Dortmund’s possession at a low tempo. It probably won’t work, largely because there is simply too much variety in the Germans’ attack to be stifled by Diego Simeone’s low-block 4-4-2. Saul Niguez and Rodrigo are outstanding defensive midfielders, but with Marco Reus in the form of his life the Spaniards don’t stand much of a chance.
Reus is in a free role as a number ten under Favre, flitting into the half-spaces to create one-twos with Jadon Sancho and Jacob Bruun Larsen. Consequently, Dortmund will patiently cycle possession for long periods, causing Atletico to sit tight and shuttle across, before flicking a switch and overwhelming the visitors.
PSG v Napoli
20:00, Live on BT Sport 3
Two of Europe’s most in-form teams go head-to-head in Paris but the hosts are clear favourites, primarily because of Napoli’s problematic performance in the 3-1 defeat to Juventus at the end of September. This is the last time Carlo Ancelotti’s team played a side anywhere near as good as PSG (Liverpool didn’t show up for their 1-0 defeat in Naples), and on that occasion their full-backs failed the test.
Right-back Eleid Hysaj was at fault for the first two Juve goals while left-back Mario Rui was sent off, with Cristiano Ronaldo and Paulo Dybala running riot on the counter. Napoli, in a flat 4-4-2, simply could not cope with the speed of Juve’s transitions, handing PSG a major advantage this evening.
It goes without saying that Neymar and Kylian Mbappe have the speed and intelligence to expose any frailty in the Napoli defence. Both will get numerous chances here thanks to Ancelotti’s desire to play expansive possession football home and away. It should be a high-scoring home victory for Thomas Tuchel’s team.
Liverpool v Crvena Zvezda
20:00, Live on BT Sport 2
Serbian side Crvena Zvezda might have lost 6-1 to PSG on their most recent Champions League outing, but they first drew 0-0 with Napoli in a game defined by dogged defending: they held just 27% possession and conceded 20 shots on goal, yet Ancelotti’s team couldn’t make the breakthrough. This is a worry for Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool, who have scored just three goals in their last five matches in all competitions.
The main reason for this is a disconnect between the midfield and attack; Liverpool need a playmaker to link the lines, because this season opponents are wise to the gegenpress and have dropped ten yards. Klopp must find a way to break down a deep-lying defence – or at least find a way to get Mohamed Salah firing again.
The Egypt international has looked sharper of late, his touches and speed returning after a jading World Cup campaign. All Salah needs now is a good goal to rediscover his confidence, and so Crvena Zvezda is, in theory, the perfect occasion.
Source: BetFair Tips
