Juve expected to struggle to break Lyon down
Barca to unconvincingly edge into QF’s
Barcelona (1) vs (1) Napoli
Saturday, 20:00
Barcelona have the upper hand heading into the 2nd leg with Napoli following a 1-1 draw in Naples, and the model calculates they have a 73.3% chance of pressing home their advantage.
Quique Setien’s side were unfortunate not to win in Naples (xG: 0.7 – 1.5 BAR), in what was one of their better away European performances of recent memory, but the way they finished the La Liga season is a cause for concern.
Barca have looked especially vulnerable defensively in Europe’s premier competition, allowing 1.4 xGA per game in the Champions League, and we know Napoli have the ability to create chances, having averaged 2.0 xGF per game in the UCL.
Gennaro Gattuso’s Coppa Italia winners have to score at least once here, and we think they will notch, though aren’t expected to keep a clean sheet in a high-scoring game (69% O2.5, 64% BTTS). Barcelona’s added star quality should get them over the line though (61% BAR win) – 2-1.
Rusty Bayern to ease to win
Bayern Munich (3) vs (0) Chelsea
Saturday, 20:00
Bayern Munich have this tie pretty much wrapped up after a blistering 3-0 win in London (xG: CHE 1.2 – 3.1 BMU), with Infogol giving Chelsea just a 0.2% chance of progressing.
Bayern won the Bundesliga at a canter in the end after some early turbulence, with their xG process quite simply ridiculous (2.7 xGF, 1.2 xGA pg), and even more so in their seven UCL matches (3.3 xGF, 0.7 xGA pg).
They could be slightly off their usual pace given such a long lay-off compared to many teams in this competition, but their quality should be able to exploit a depleted Chelsea side who lost key players to injury in the FA Cup final.
Chelsea were completely out-played by this superior side in the first leg, and this shouldn’t be any different in Germany, in what may prove to be a casual warm-up game for the hosts. Bayern are expected to win the game (71%), with goals likely (63% O2.5) – 3-0.
For more information on Infogol, visit infogol.net
Source: BetFair Tips
