Alex Keble looks ahead to the four midweek Champions League matches, predicting Man Utd may squeeze through their tie against Atletico Madrid…
“Ralf Rangnick does not coach for long periods of possession, instead preferring a system based on attacking quickly in the transition moments – and increasingly it seems like this is too reactive for a club of United’s size. “
Man Utd v Atletico Madrid
Tuesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 2
The first leg went exactly as expected. Manchester United dominated the ball throughout as Atletico Madrid sat back in their 3-5-2 formation and suffocated the visitors, using intelligent pressure from the wing-backs to stop United being able to play with any creativity in the wide areas. One pushed up into midfield every time, leading to the ball being cycled harmlessly back again to the centre-backs.
Ralf Rangnick does not coach for long periods of possession, instead preferring a system based on attacking quickly in the transition moments – and increasingly it seems like this is too reactive for a club of United’s size. There is no doubt Diego Simeone will employ the same tactic on Tuesday, slowing the match right down as United shuffle the ball back and forth.
The way to win it is to swing early crosses in for Cristiano Ronaldo, buoyed by his hattrick at the weekend. Jadon Sancho and Marcus Rashford (or Anthony Elanga) will sit very wide to stretch Atleti, and as soon as they get the ball they need to fashion space to swing something towards Ronaldo. They need his magic to break the deadlock.
Ajax v Benfica
Tuesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 3
In direct contrast to the game at Old Trafford, this should be another belter. The first leg ended 2-2 and it could have been more, such was the wild nature of a contest that predictably swung from end to end. There is no reason to assume this game will be any different, especially with Ajax at home.
Ajax’s desire to dominate possession means they are open and adventurous, pouring bodies forward to attack and stretching their own shape so wide as to be vulnerable to counter-attacks. Benfica prefer to sit back and utilise incisive breaks of the sort Ajax make possible; it is a perfect clash of styles to create a game that moves constantly from one end to the other.
Sebastien Haller, who scored at both ends in the first leg, is the key player for Ajax because the Benfica low block necessitates a more direct approach. Dusan Tadic’s trickery and crosses for Haller will be defining. Meanwhile Benfica’s counters depend on whether left winger Everton can get behind Ajax’s advancing right-back Noussair Mazraoui.
Lille v Chelsea
Wednesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 2
The tactical pattern of the first leg, a 2-0 win for Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, went precisely as we predicted – and will be repeated in France on Wednesday. Lille’s use of a 4-4-2 has undermined them many times this season because it is too light in midfield for a system so expansive, such as in the 5-1 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain recently.
Sure enough, Thomas Tuchel knew just how to take advantage, with N’Golo Kante assisting Chelsea’s opener by skipping past an on-rushing challenge and breaking through these wide open midfield spaces. There is little chance Lille will notably change their style, and the fact they are chasing the game only increases their vulnerability.
Lille have no choice but to press high and hard, to commit those two midfielders up the pitch and hope to win their one-on-one battles with Kante and Mateo Kovacic. That means even more space for Kante, even more counter-attacking scenarios developing for a Chelsea side allowed to sit in and protect the lead, and even more chances for Kai Havertz to continue an impressive goalscoring run.
Juventus v Villarreal
Wednesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 3
Max Allegri and Unai Emery are not too dissimilar tactically. The Juventus manager is struggling in Serie A this season because there is a suggestion his ideology has become a little out-dated, and in the modern Italian game there needs to be greater attention paid to dominating possession and pressing higher up the pitch. Emery, however, manages a club of the right size to stay withdrawn and focus on breaks.
For two managers preferring not to have the ball, playing at home is a disadvantage in the Champions League. Emery teams are superb at being the under-dogs, deliberately inviting pressure with their passes out from the back before hurtling forward in threes and fours, and clearly that is more likely to happen when playing in Turin.
The possession will be further in Juve’s favour on Wednesday, meaning the caution and low-quality football of the first leg will give way to a clearer pattern that Villarreal will enjoy. Emery’s team should steal the tie.
Source: BetFair Tips
