Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Bundesliga result and scoreline predictions as the top-four battle goes to the final day…
“With two games of the season remaining, Freiburg have their top four fate in their own hands, but it won’t be easy.”
Bochum to push towards top half
Bochum v Arminia Bielefeld
Friday, 19:30
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After stealing a late victory in Dortmund last weekend, Bochum can set their sights on a top-half finish. Opponents Arminia are fighting for their lives, but are in the midst of a dreadful run which continues to harm their survival hopes. The visitors are averaging just 0.84 xGF on the road, along with 2.06 xGA, and Infogol’s model backs Bochum to claim the points.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Köln to claim fifth straight win
Köln v Wolfsburg
Saturday, 14:30
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Köln’s four successive wins have come with a 2.19 xGF average, and Infogol’s model backs them to go five for five as they host Wolfsburg. The reverse fixture went the way of Steffen Baumgart’s team, with Anthony Modeste sealing a 3-2 win late on, and Baumgart’s men are expected to claim another three points which could keep them in with an outside shot of fourth place.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1
Freiburg to cling onto fourth
Freiburg v Union Berlin
Saturday, 14:30
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With two games of the season remaining, Freiburg have their top four fate in their own hands, but it won’t be easy. Union Berlin are the final visitors to Europa-Park Stadion, with the visitors’ 1.31 xGA average on the road one of the best in the Bundesliga, but Infogol’s model still expects Freiburg to have a slight edge and stay in control as they take things right to the wire.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.6017/2
Dortmund to make sure of second place
Greuther Fürth v Borussia Dortmund
Saturday, 14:30
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Successive defeats mean Dortmund still have work to do to clinch second spot, but a trip to Sportpark Ronhof should be just what the doctor ordered. Fürth’s return of 14 home points remains the worst in the league, while Marco Rose’s visitors have more points on the road than their opponents have all season long, and Infogol’s model gives the away side a 69% chance of victory.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1
Leverkusen to seal Champions League qualification
Hoffenheim v Bayer Leverkusen
Saturday, 14:30
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Leverkusen currently sit four points ahead of fifth-place RB Leipzig, so a victory on Saturday would be enough to clinch a top-four finish. Opponents Hoffenheim were also in the mix before their recent poor run, capped off by last weekend’s late loss against Freiburg, and Infogol backs the visitors to claim what would be a ninth away victory of the season.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1
Mainz to win again after Bayern victory
Hertha Berlin v Mainz
Saturday, 17:30
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A 3-1 victory over Bayern Munich last weekend saw Mainz return to the top half, and they can stay there with a victory at the Olympiastadion. Hertha are able to guarantee their survival with a win, but Infogol’s model suggests they’ll be made to wait – at least until the full weekend programme is concluded – with a trip to Dortmund awaiting on the final day.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 11.0010/1
Frankfurt to keep top half hopes alive
Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Mönchengladbach
Sunday, 14:30
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By the time Frankfurt kick off on Sunday, they’ll know whether they have a Europa League final ahead of them. Oliver Glasner’s side rotated heavily last time out against Leverkusen, but Infogol expects them to have the edge against their former boss Adi Hutter as he takes his Gladbach side to Deutsche Bank Park aiming to respond to the 3-2 defeat his team suffered in the reverse fixture.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.5019/2
Stuttgart to suffer in Munich
Bayern Munich v Stuttgart
Sunday, 16:30
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It looks increasingly likely that Stuttgart will face a play-off to stay in the league, with a five-match winless run leaving them in relegation danger. Bayern’s 2.64 xGF average means it’ll be tough for Pellegrino Matarazzo’s team to take anything from their trip to the Allianz Arena, so a final day meeting with Köln could end up deciding their fate.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-1 @ 11.0010/1
Leipzig to stay in top-four hunt
RB Leipzig v Augsburg
Sunday, 18:30
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After losing away to Borussia Mönchengladbach last time out, RB Leipzig need a favour from elsewhere if they’re to finish in the top four. The Europa League may yet offer a route back into the Champions League, and they’ll know by Thursday night whether they’re in the final. In the meantime, though, Domenico Tedesco’s team can use a 1.99 xGF average to their advantage against an Augsburg side who are almost assured of their safety.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Source: BetFair Tips
