Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Bundesliga result and scoreline predictions as the top two face off in Munich…
“With Bayern nine points clear after just four league defeats all season, their successful title defence remains a formality. However, making it mathematically certain against rivals Dortmund would undoubtedly please Julian Nagelsmann.”
Mainz to keep Wolfsburg on their toes
Wolfsburg v Mainz
Friday, 19:30
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Wolfsburg fans will hope their hammering at Dortmund last weekend isn’t a sign of things to come, with Florian Kohfeldt’s side still not mathematically assured of survival. Opponents Mainz aren’t in the best of form themselves – winless in four – but Infogol gives the visitors a slight edge as they look to follow December’s 3-0 win with another league victory over opponents sat five points below them.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 13.0012/1
Eintracht to prepare for Europe with home win
Eintracht Frankfurt v Hoffenheim
Saturday, 14:30
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Eintracht Frankfurt have a couple of huge games on the horizon, with West Ham United awaiting in the Europa League semi-finals, so the outcome on Saturday may depend on how many players they rest for their league exploits. All things being equal, Infogol’s model can find little to choose between Oliver Glasner’s side and opponents Hoffenheim, backing the hosts to edge an away side with just two goals in its last five games.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 11.0010/1
Köln to overcome managerless Arminia
Köln v Arminia Bielefeld
Saturday, 14:30
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Last weekend’s loss against Bayern spelled the end of the road for Frank Kramer, who was sacked by Arminia after an average of 3.10 xGA across their last four games. An upturn looks unlikely against Köln, who have won their last two and continue to push for a European spot, and Steffen Baumgart’s team are expected to put their 1.63 xGF home average to good use against the strugglers.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1
Freiburg to stay in top four contention
Freiburg v Borussia Mönchengladbach
Saturday, 14:30
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Successive league wins have reinvigorated Freiburg’s push for Champions League qualification, and they also have a cup final to look forward to after a midweek victory over Hamburg. The Bundesliga is the priority this weekend, though, and Christian Streich’s side sit just one point outside the top four as they aim to put a 1.86 xGF home average to good use and pick up more points against Gladbach.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.6017/2
Leverkusen to cling onto fourth
Greuther Fürth v Bayer Leverkusen
Saturday, 14:30
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Last weekend’s loss against Leipzig could easily have gone the other way, with neither side creating too many big chances, but the result leaves Leverkusen with little margin for error in the top-four push. Infogol still has them winning at Fürth, though, with the hosts’ 1.11 xGF average at Sportpark Ronhof among the worst home returns in the entire Bundesliga.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.4017/2
Leipzig to down Union once more
RB Leipzig v Union Berlin
Saturday, 14:30
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RB Leipzig have already beaten Union Berlin once this weekend thanks to Emil Forsberg’s late goal in the cup semi, and Domenico Tedesco’s side can deal their rivals another blow on Saturday. Defeat for Union would severely harm their chances of European football next season while benefitting Leipzig’s, and Infogol backs the hosts to get further revenge after their 2-1 defeat in the capital in December.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.6017/2
Bayern to clinch title with Klassiker victory
Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund
Saturday, 17:30
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With Bayern nine points clear after just four league defeats all season, their successful title defence remains a formality. However, making it mathematically certain against rivals Dortmund would undoubtedly please Julian Nagelsmann. The champions-elect have averaged 2.54 xGF across their last four league games, and with no more European distractions it’s hard to see beyond a home win.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-1 @ 11.5021/2
Bochum to all but clinch safety
Bochum v Augsburg
Sunday, 14:30
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With an eight point gap to the relegation play-off place, Bochum can feel confident of a second successive season back in the Bundesliga, but the right combination of results this weekend could make absolutely sure. Visitors Augsburg aren’t safe themselves, with successive 1-0 losses leaving them looking over their shoulders, and Infogol tips the hosts to use their 1.21 xGA home average to their advantage.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.6017/2
Stuttgart to prevail in huge bottom-of-the-table clash
Hertha Berlin v Stuttgart
Sunday, 16:30
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Hertha pulled themselves out of the bottom two with a win last weekend, but defeat this weekend could send them right back into danger. Infogol’s model makes Stuttgart the favourites to win at the Olympiastadion, where three points could see the teams switch places, and it’s a game where the hosts’ season-long average of 1.81 xGA will worry them against opponents in need of a result.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 11.0010/1
Source: BetFair Tips
