Bundesliga Tips: Leverkusen can make mark in Munich

Bayer can go down swinging

Bayern Munich v Bayer Leverkusen
Saturday 05 March, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

Bayern Munich took another big step towards a tenth straight Bundesliga title last weekend, as they ground out a 1-0 win at Eintracht Frankfurt, and then Borussia Dortmund dropped points in Augsburg. Julian Nagelsmann’s side is now eight points clear at the top with ten matches left, and even if they lose at home to Dortmund in Der Klassiker, a complete collapse seems unlikely.

Bayern now face the kind of test they relish. Incredibly, they have won all of their matches against top-half sides this term, and if you look at their games against the big hitters you can see how much they shine in the spotlight. They have beaten Leverkusen 5-1, Dortmund have been edged out 3-2 at they overcame RB Leipzig 4-1 and 3-2.

Leverkusen won 5-2 at Borussia Dortmund recently, and they have only lost at Mainz in 2022. They have a genuine chance of winning the Europa League, and are on track to qualify for next season’s Champions League. Even without injured talisman Patrik Schick, they still swept aside Arminia Bielefeld 3-0 last weekend.

I’m tempted to go for Bayern to win and both teams to score here on the Sportsbook at 2.111/10, but I’m actually going to plump for a couple of bigger prices. Bayer to score over 1.5 goals is priced at 2.68/5 on the Sportsbook, and they have found the net twice or more in 12 of their last 15 competitive matches. Bayern have given up two goals or more in six of their last 15 top-flight outings, and they don’t look as defensively sound as they have in previous seasons.

That leads me onto my second selection, which is to back Bayer right-back Jeremie Frimpong in the Anytime Assist market at 5.59/2. Bayern left-back Alphonso Davies is still out because of heart inflammation, and I think the fleet-footed Frimpong will look to constantly raid that right flank. He has racked up six assists in the Bundesliga and a further two in the UEL, and if Bayer do threaten, he’ll be a significant attacking outlet.

Red Bulls to stampede

RB Leipzig v Freiburg
Saturday 05 March, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

It is truly extraordinary that as we move into the final ten matchdays of the Bundesliga season, Freiburg are only being kept out of the Champions League spots by virtue of goal difference. Christian Streich also led his team into the semi-finals of the DFB Cup in midweek, so it could be the most remarkable season in what has already been a coaching career full of minor miracles.

However, I suspect reality will bite this weekend. RB Leipzig have won nine of their last 11 games in all competitions, they crushed Hannover 4-0 in the cup on Wednesday, and they have been given a bye to the UEL quarter-finals after Spartak Moscow were expelled from the competition. That will ease a bit of pressure on their players, and coach Domenico Tedesco arguably has as deep a squad as anyone in the Bundesliga. Christopher Nkunku is currently the star of the show, and has scored in six of his last seven games.

Freiburg have won just two of their last seven away games, and were recently smashed 5-1 at Borussia Dortmund. I think they are in for a tough test here against a Leipzig side that has won eight of its last ten Bundesliga home matches. I’ll back the hosts -1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.01/1.

Arminia can avoid defeat

Arminia Bielefeld v Augsburg
Friday 04 March, 19:30
Live on Sky Sports and Betfair Live Video

Both Arminia Bielefeld and Augsburg are in the thick of the relegation battle, but it is Arminia who seem in better shape, both in terms of the standings and their general form. This is a critical match, as there are just ten matchdays left including this one, and every point makes a difference.

Arminia were outclassed last weekend in a 3-0 loss at Bayer Leverkusen, but frankly there’s no shame in that. They conceded a controversial opener (even goalscorer Lucas Alario didn’t celebrate because he thought the goal would be scratched out for handball), and were then undone by the brilliance of Florian Wirtz and Moussa Diaby.

In general, Frank Kramer’s men are playing well – they have lost just four of their last 14 league games, and on home soil they have put together a six-match unbeaten run which stretches back to October.

Augsburg have only won once on the road all season, and although they fought back well to draw 1-1 with Borussia Dortmund last weekend, they are still struggling to score goals. Key midfielder Niklas Dorsch is suspended, and US teen sensation Ricardo Pepi is yet to sparkle in attack. Augsburg have taken maximum points from just one of their last nine top-flight matches.

I’ll use the Sportsbook’s Bet Builder here to back Arminia/Draw Double Chance, Under 3.5 Goals and Over 7.5 Match Corners at 2.265/4. I don’t think Arminia will lose, this game features two of the worst attacks in the league (22 goals in 24 games for Arminia, 26 for Augsburg) and yet there is reason to believe we’ll see plenty of corners here. Games involving Arminia average 10.5 corners per match, while matches involving Augsburg average 10.1. Augsburg use the flanks a lot in their attacks, and I can’t see that changing here.