Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Bundesliga result and scoreline predictions as third play fourth and fifth go up against sixth…
“It’s third versus fourth at BayArena, with Sebastian Hoeneß’s visitors coming off four straight wins, though the last two of those weren’t entirely convincing.”
Bayern to pick up sixth successive win
Stuttgart v Bayern Munich
Tuesday, 17:30
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Bayern Munich didn’t have everything go their way over the weekend, but victory over Mainz means they can at least temporarily extend their lead at the top to nine points with another win on Tuesday in Stuttgart. The hosts may feel as though they should have more points at Mercedes-Benz Arena, but Infogol still expects the champions to walk away with another three points.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-3 @ 11.0010/1
Arminia to revive survival hopes
Arminia Bielefeld v Bochum
Tuesday, 19:30
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Defeat on Tuesday could leave Arminia Bielefeld as many as nine points adrift of the relegation play-off place, but Infogol’s model backs them to close the gap rather than seeing it widen. Opponents Bochum are healthy in mid-table, but their solid home record masks a 2.61 xGA away average which remains the worst in the entire Bundesliga.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 11.0010/1
Mainz to pip Hertha
Mainz v Hertha Berlin
Tuesday, 19:30
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Hertha’s three-game unbeaten run can only be counted as a positive, but Infogol expects that to come to an end at Mewa Arena on Tuesday night. The hosts should arguably be higher than eighth place, and this season’s form could well be a better guide to the outcome than the 1-1 draw between these two sides when they were fighting to stay up at the end of last season.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.809/1
Wolfsburg to bring an end to recent misery
Wolfsburg v Köln
Tuesday, 19:30
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The weekend loss to Stuttgart was Wolfsburg’s fifth in a row in all competitions, ensuring the new manager bounce under Florian Kohfeldt is firmly a thing of the past, but they have a chance to turn things around against opponents who lost 1-0 at Volkswagen Arena last season. Köln remain winless on the road this season, though others have fewer points, and those travel issues could see them beaten once more.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Gladbach to bring Frankfurt down to earth
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Eintracht Frankfurt
Wednesday, 17:30
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Frankfurt’s big win over Bayer Leverkusen over the weekend was one where the 5-2 scoreline doesn’t tell the entire story, and their trip to Borussia-Park is not necessarily the foregone conclusion their opponents’ recent defensive woes might suggest. The home side will be after a response after a dire display at Leipzig which saw them ship four goals, and Infogol’s model backs out-of-form Gladbach to turn things around.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.809/1
Leipzig to make it three wins on the spin
Augsburg v RB Leipzig
Wednesday, 19:30
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The arrival of new manager Domenico Tedesco reaped instant rewards for RB Leipzig, who followed a European victory with their first league win in more than a month. Die Roten Bullen have been better than their league position suggests, with a failure to convert away performances into wins a big part of their problem, and Infogol backs them to secure precious points on the road as they face an Augsburg outfit who they beat home and away in 2020-21.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.208/1
Leverkusen to triumph in top-four battle
Bayer Leverkusen v Hoffenheim
Wednesday, 19:30
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It’s third versus fourth at BayArena, with Sebastian Hoeneß’s visitors coming off four straight wins, though the last two of those weren’t entirely convincing. The hosts have averaged 2.25 xGF per game across their last three at home in all competitions, and the visitors’ first task will be to avoid a repeat of last season when they had two men sent off in an eventual 4-1 defeat.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Dortmund to knock Fürth back after maiden win
Borussia Dortmund v Greuther Fürth
Wednesday, 19:30
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Fürth rode their luck to claim a first league win of the season against Union Berlin on Sunday, shutting out opponents who registered 12 shots on goal and six on target, and Infogol’s model doesn’t expect them to be as lucky at Signal Iduna Park. Dortmund are averaging 2.23 xGF per game at home this season, and there’s no reason to think that will change against opponents posting similar numbers in the away xGA column.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-1 @ 10.5019/2
Union Berlin to bounce back on home return
Union Berlin v Freiburg
Wednesday, 19:30
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Despite their frustration over the weekend, Union are a team who will always fancy their chances at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, though Freiburg were among the sides to hold them to a draw in the capital last season. Infogol’s model backs a side who have been solid at home, even if the return of 17 points from eight matches in front of their own fans may flatter Urs Fischer’s side.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.5019/2
Source: BetFair Tips
