Bundesliga Tips: Bayern to make final statement

Bayern to wrap up season in style

Wolfsburg v Bayern
Saturday 14 May, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

There are few certainties in life, but there are deaths, taxes and Bayern Munich wins against Wolfsburg. Bayern have won 12 of their last 13 games against the Wolves in the top flight, and have lost just one of the last 25. Bayern have won the last eight league meetings, scoring 26 goals in the process. The record champions have also won on their last six top-flight visits to the Volkswagen Arena, with scores of 2-0, 6-0, 2-1, 3-1, 4-0 and 3-2. In the reverse fixture, Bayern won 4-0.

It’s been a terrible season for Wolfsburg. Last season they proudly finished in the top four, but Dutchman Mark van Bommel proved to be a wretched replacement for Frankfurt-bound coach Oliver Glasner, and he lasted just nine league games before he was replaced by Florian Kohfeldt. Opinion is still divided regarding Kohfeldt’s true level of coaching acumen, but he has kept the team in the top flight, which didn’t seem nailed-on earlier in the campaign.

Bayern have been strolling recently, having secured the title with victory over Borussia Dortmund in Der Klassiker a few weeks ago. They lost at Mainz and drew with Stuttgart, but they always seem to shine in this fixture, and I think we’ll see a comfortable win for the table-toppers. Robert Lewandowski will chase goals (if you believe what you read, it could be his farewell appearance, as he is mightily annoyed about Bayern’s failed pursuit of Erling Haaland), Thomas Müller will chase assists, and I expect Wolfsburg’s defensive deficiencies to be exposed.

I’ll back Bayern -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.26/5.

Frankfurt focused elsewhere

Mainz v Eintracht Frankfurt
Saturday 14 May, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

Eintracht Frankfurt will play one of the biggest games in their history next Wednesday, as they face Rangers in the final of the Europa League in Seville. Even though their final game of the Bundesliga season is a local derby at Mainz, I simply can’t see the Eagles taking it too seriously, and it would be madness for coach Oliver Glasner to field a full-strength team. If you look at the recent surrenders at Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen, Frankfurt barely laid a glove on their opponents.

Mainz will take this seriously though, and coach Bo Svensson has built up an impressive home record. Bayern lost at the MEWA Arena recently, and Mainz have won seven of their last nine league games on home soil. They don’t tends to respect reputations either – Bayern have lost on their last two visits, while RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen have also come away empty-handed this season. Jonathan Burkardt has had a breakout season in attack alongside strike partner Karim Onisiwo, and midfielder Anton Stach has even broken into the senior Germany squad.

With defensive behemoth Martin Hinteregger out until the summer and Dane Jesper Lindstrom racing to be fit for the final, Frankfurt aren’t at full strength anyway, and it would be a surprise if Glasner risks the likes of Filip Kostic and Ansgar Knauff here. I’ll back Mainz -1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.0421/20.

Stuttgart’s pain to be prolonged

Stuttgart v Köln
Saturday 14 May, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

Stuttgart’s impressive draw at Bayern last weekend means that they are highly unlikely to go down automatically (Arminia Bielefeld need a big win against RB Leipzig), but unless Pellegrino Matarazzo’s men win against Köln and Hertha lose at Borussia Dortmund, then they face a relegation playoff against one of a number of candidates from the second tier. Stuttgart’s season has been ruined by injuries, and a young group of players has struggled to deal with the pressure.

I can’t fathom why Stuttgart are the favourites here. Köln have qualified for Europe, but they know that a Europa League spot isn’t entirely out of their reach if they win this and Union drop points against Bochum. Stuttgart have only won six of their 33 league matches, and the last of those victories was nearly two months ago.

Köln coach Steffen Baumgart is too passionate to accept his players slacking off here, and he refused to let the players celebrate European qualification with the fans last weekend, as he had this game in mind. The Billy Goats have won four of their last five league matches, and have taken maximum points from three of the last four on the road.

Stuttgart are far too short here, do I’ll back Köln/Draw in the Double Chance market at 1.84/5.