Bundesliga Tips: Backlash in Bielefeld on the cards

Dortmund to lash out with win

Arminia Bielefeld v Borussia Dortmund
Saturday 23 October, 14:30
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After producing one of the club’s worst displays in living memory, Borussia Dortmund and their coach Marco Rose simply have to put things right at the Schuco Arena on Saturday. Tuesday’s humbling 4-0 demolition at Ajax truly was a feeble display, and while it shouldn’t derail BVB’s Champions League campaign, it has deflated Rose’s balloon in somewhat spectacular fashion.

Ajax were too quick, too smart and too organised for Die Schwarzgelben, and had it not been for a stubborn display from Dortmund keeper Gregor Kobel, the margin of victory could have been greater. Erling Haaland was kept largely quiet on a night where the visitors produced just four attempts on target.

I expect a totally different picture in Bielefeld, who Dortmund beat 2-0 and 3-0 last season. Borussia have won six of their eight Bundesliga matches, scoring 22 goals in the process, and they have already won by two clear goals or more on three occasions.

Arminia still haven’t won this season, and they have netted just four goals in eight Bundesliga outings. Goalscoring has been a problem ever since they returned to the top flight, and that is unlikely to change any time soon given the personnel at their disposal.

I expect a fired-up Dortmund to win this with room to spare, so I’ll back them -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.991/1.

Leipzig to take out their frustration on Fürth

RB Leipzig v Greuther Fürth
Saturday 23 October, 14:30
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It’s been an incredibly tough start to life as Leipzig’s head coach for American Jesse Marsch. His team has been defensively fragile in Europe and in the Bundesliga, and Tuesday’s 3-2 defeat at PSG was typical of how things are going for Die Roten Bullen. Leipzig played well in attack, but Nordi Mukiele naively conceded a penalty for Lionel Messi’s winner, and goalkeeper Peter Gulacsi once again looked short of top form. Leipzig have lost all three of their Champions League matches, and are in serious danger of going without European football after Christmas.

However, where Leipzig have excelled is in their home games against the lesser lights. They destroyed Hertha Berlin 6-0 and swept aside Bochum 3-0, with both of those results coming at the Red Bull Arena. I can see a similar thrashing being doled out to Greuther Fürth, who look completely out of their depth at this level.

Fürth have only claimed one point so far, and last weekend they lost 1-0 at home to fellow newly-promoted side Bochum. They have leaked 20 goals in eight matches, and they have scored just five times. On the road, they lost 5-1 at Stuttgart, 3-0 at Mainz, 2-1 at Hertha and 3-1 at Köln.

I wouldn’t usually consider backing a team at -2.5 on the Asian Handicap, but I’ll make an exception here, given the quality gap. You can back Leipzig to win by three goals or more at 2.166/5, and I think that’s a fair price. I’ll also back the electrifying Christopher Nkunku to score at 2.526/4 – the Frenchman has already scored nine goals in all competitions, having played 12 times.

Wirtz to light up Rhineland clash

Köln v Bayer Leverkusen
Sunday 24 October, 14:30
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Both Köln and Bayer Leverkusen have been licking their respective wounds this week. The Billy Goats were shredded 5-0 at Hoffenheim, and then Leverkusen were humiliated on home soil in a 5-1 defeat to Bayern Munich. Worryingly for the league, Bayer coach Gerardo Seoane seemed to simply accept that such a heavy defeat against the record champions was the natural order, as if there was no way his side could have been expected to do better.

The only bright moment from Bayer inevitably came from star striker Patrik Schick and teen terror Florian Wirtz, who racked up his sixth Bundesliga assist of the season, as Schick found the net. Wirtz has also scored four league goals, and at 18, the German international has the world at his feet. He also had a personal connection to this local derby, as he came through the Köln academy, before defecting to Bayer.

Given that Köln haven’t managed a clean sheet in the league this season, I think Wirtz is far too big at 7/2 in the Anytime Assist market. He is in the form of his young life, and should get room to roam against a side that takes risks.