Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol Tom Victor provides Bundesliga scoreline predictions as new managers and new signings begin the season….
“The champions are solid favourites, according to Infogol’s model, but it’s unlikely to be as straightforward as the hammering of Schalke in the first game of last season.”
Champions Bayern to begin with a win
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Bayern Munich
Friday, 19:30
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Gladbach were one of four teams to beat Bayern last season, but both teams have since changed manager, with Adi Hutter’s hosts taking on Julian Nagelsmann’s visitors at Borussia-Park in the curtain-raiser. The champions are solid favourites, according to Infogol’s model, but it’s unlikely to be as straightforward as their hammering of Schalke in the first game of last season.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.5019/2
Freiburg to pip Arminia in away opener
Arminia Bielefeld v Freiburg
Saturday, 14:30
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After only guaranteeing their Bundesliga status on the final day of last season, Arminia begin against a Freiburg side who they narrowly beat during the run-in to spark that season-saving run of results. Infogol anticipates a different result this time around, though, with Christian Streich’s visitors narrow favourites to win a game which could go either way.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1
Hoffenheim to build on fast finish to 2020-21 season
Augsburg v Hoffenheim
Saturday, 14:30
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Hoffenheim took 11 points from their final five games last term, averaging 1.73 xGF in the process, and they should be confident of victory against an Augsburg side whose poor late-season form almost saw them dragged into relegation danger. The hosts averaged 1.69 xGA per game at WWK Arena last term – only relegated Schalke were worse at home – prompting Infogol to back the visitors.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.4017/2
Stuttgart to get the better of newcomers
Stuttgart v Greuther Fürth
Saturday, 14:30
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After coming up from 2. Bundesliga, Greuther Fürth begin life back in the top-flight against a team which set the benchmark for post-promotion seasons. Stuttgart picked up more points away than at home last season, but Infogol’s model backs the hosts to just about get the better of opponents who they beat 2-0 while on the way up in 2019-20.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1
Seoane to make winning start as Bayer boss
Union Berlin v Bayer Leverkusen
Saturday, 14:30
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Gerardo Seoane is the latest manager to make his Bundesliga bow, having joined Leverkusen from Young Boys in his native Switzerland. His team are narrow favourites with Infogol to take the points at Stadion An der Alten Försterei. Union have strengthened ahead of a Europa Conference League campaign, including the permanent addition of former loanee Taiwo Awoniyi, but they’re expected to come up short against a side which pipped them by two points last term.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.809/1
Wolfsburg to defeat newcomers Bochum
Wolfsburg v Bochum
Saturday, 14:30
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One of the more intriguing managerial changes sees Mark van Bommel enter the Wolfsburg dugout, and the former PSV boss will hope the addition of a number of players – including brothers Lukas and Felix Nmecha from Manchester City – can help his side make a winning start. He’s up against last season’s 2. Bundesliga champions Bochum, who are back in the big time after a decade away, and Infogol anticipates a home win.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 8.207/1
Rose to win first BuLi game with Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt
Saturday, 17:30
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Marco Rose is finally ready for his first league game as Borussia Dortmund manager, having been confirmed months ago, and he takes on another new manager in Frankfurt’s Oliver Glasner. The hosts finished last season with seven straight wins, overcoming the xG numbers in certain cases, and Infogol’s model expects a season-long 1.94 xGF per game last term to translate into a home win.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-1 @ 12.0011/1
Leipzig to kick off post-Nagelsmann era with a win
Mainz v RB Leipzig
Sunday, 14:30
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Jesse Marsch is in the hotseat at Red Bull Arena for his first Bundesliga managerial job, and he’s up against a Mainz side that won the corresponding fixture last season. Bo Svensson’s men were better than their 16 home points from 17 games suggest, but the visitors are still expected to win as they begin their preparations for another season fighting for honours at home and in Europe.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 8.808/1
Köln and Hertha to cancel each other out
Köln v Hertha Berlin
Sunday, 16:30
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Two of last season’s strugglers meet at RheinEnergieStadion, with Köln only clinging to their top-flight status by beating Holstein Kiel in the relegation play-off. New manager Steffen Baumgart has made some additions on the cheap, but so have Hertha, and the two sides have each shown some encouraging pre-season form, ensuring there’s little to choose between them.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-1 @ 6.6011/2
Source: BetFair Tips
