Brighton v Burnley: Points to be shared in another low-scorer

I find it hard to have confidence in the Seagulls at that kind of price, given their inability to win football matches on a regular basis.

Back The Draw @ 3.65

Potter needs to magic up a few more wins

It goes to show how far Brighton have come that a 2-0 defeat at Old Trafford in the week was deemed a very disappointing result. It was just their fifth loss of the Premier League season – a record that only the top three can better.

Graham Potter’s side had gone seven with defeat prior to that, but the reason why they are only ninth is that four of those were draws. They have shared the spoils on 12 occasions this term – the most out of any other team in the league.

An inability to convert as many chances as they should is the thing that holds them back, as with just 25 goals to their name, only four other clubs have scored fewer. It isn’t like they regularly fail to find the net in games, it’s just that they rarely score more than once.

Club captain, Lewis Dunk, is suspended for this weekend following his red card against United, so either Joel Veltman or Shane Duffy will partner Adam Webster. Tariq Lamptey was only on the bench during the week, so he is expected to return on Saturday.

Time beginning to run out for Burnley

Things are beginning to look a bit bleak for Burnley, as while they still have games in hand, they are now seven points from safety, having won just once all season.

Sean Dyche’s men haven’t been losing many matches of late – just four of their last 13 – and they put up a good fight in their 0-1 loss against Liverpool last Sunday.

Similarly to the Seagulls though, they have drawn far too many games, and their lack of prowess in front of goal hasn’t helped them one bit.

Chris Wood departed for Tyneside, and replacement, Wout Weghorst is doubtful for the trip to the Amex with a knock.

The hosts are the odds-on favourites, with their price trading at around the 1.728/11 mark on the Betfair Exchange. The draw is 3.65 and the visitors are the outsider at 6.25/1.

I find it hard to have confidence in the Seagulls at that kind of price, given their inability to win football matches on a regular basis.

Only on three occasions have they taken maximum points at home this season, with the likes of Everton, Newcastle, Leeds and Crystal Palace all getting results here.

The Clarets, meanwhile, have drawn five of their 11 on the road this term, and that includes taking a point from the Emirates and Stamford Bridge.

It’s also worth noting that conditions could be pretty blustery, and that always makes it harder to score goals.

One odds-on shot that I am keen on is Under 2.5 goals. It can be backed at 1.75/7, and compared to a Brighton win at a similar price, it screams value.

When it comes to high-scoring matches this season, Brighton and Burnley rank 19th and 18th respectively. The hosts are seeing their matches average 2.08 goals per game, and 19 of their 24 have seen this selection land.

Burnley’s average is only a shade higher at 2.19, and they have had 13 of their 21 end with two goals or fewer.

My Bet Builder for this game combines my two selections so far – the Draw and Under 2.5 Goals – along with Over 3.5 Cards and Under 9.5 Corners. That combines to make a 17/1 shot, and with both teams in the top half when it comes to cards given this season, it looks like a decent bet to me.

Key Opta Stat

Burnley are unbeaten in their last five away league games against Brighton, though four of these have ended level (won 3-1 in February 2019).