Austria v Northern Ireland
Sunday 15 November, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports
Promotion on the cards for Austria
Austria are level on points with Norway at the top of League B Group 1 courtesy of a better head to head record. They beat Luxembourg in a friendly on Wednesday, and that extended their winning run to four matches.
Following this fixture they face the Norwegians at home into their final outing, so if they can win this one, they will head into that game knowing that a draw will see them promoted to League A.
RB Leipzig midfielder, Marcel Sabitzer – a target of Tottenham – missed the last Nations League match against Romania, but there is every chance he will be recalled to the starting XI this weekend.
Northern Ireland need a fresh start
It was woe at Windsor Park for Northern Ireland on Thursday, as despite forcing extra time against Slovakia, Ian Baraclough’s men were beaten by Slovakia and thus miss out on next summer’s Euros.
Baraclough has now taken charge of six games since the departure of Michael O’Neill, and he is yet to record a victory inside of 90 minutes. They need to pick themselves up pretty quickly though, as they are staring relegation to League C in the face.
The Nations League hasn’t been Ireland’s favourite competition, as they have taken just one point from four games so far this year, and in the inaugural tournament they played four and lost four.
As for the team news, Baraclough is set to make plenty of changes from the Slovakia game, with Craig Cathcart definitely being out after injuring his groin.
The Austrians are the 1.351/3 favourites on the Betfair Exchange, the draw is 5.59/2 and the visitors are trading at around the 12.011/1 mark.
In the reverse fixture in Belfast, Franco Foda’s side won 1-0 and they were value for a bit more than that. Obviously I am not going to tip them up at 1.351/3, but I wouldn’t say that their price was too short.
There are alternative markets though, and in one of those, you can double your money if you give Northern Ireland a one goal head-start.
Austria -1 feels like a good bet to me as not only are they the better team, they are in much better form, have home advantage and didn’t suffer a crushing blow earlier in the week.
The Over/Under 2.5 Goal market is much tighter than the Match Odds one, as it’s practically even money the pair.
The stats are pointing towards Unders, but I certainly wouldn’t rule out the alternative. Austria scored three against Luxembourg on Wednesday, and if Baraclough’s team fold in Vienna, they are more than capable of repeating that feat.
Ultimately though, I don’t see enough edge at 2.01/1, so I am happy to leave it alone.
Over on the Sportsbook I have put together a Same Game Multi that combines to pay 3.18, and I think it looks pretty solid.
Austria to be winning at half time, Over 1.5 Goals in the match and Adrian Grbic to score anytime is the bet.
Key Opta Stat
Austria have won each of their last four meetings with Northern Ireland, with the most recent three in this run all coming in the UEFA Nations League.
Source: BetFair Tips
