Arsenal v Valencia
Thursday 02 May, 20:00
Live on BT Sport
Emery closing in on more European glory
Sevilla fans will tell you that when Unai Emery starts to edge towards Europa League success, it’s not uncommon for his team’s domestic form to unravel. The Gunners have lost three straight Premier League matches, and have conceded nine goals in the process. Although that slump hasn’t cost Arsenal a shot at a top-four finish, winning this competition may well be their best route back to the Champions League.
Emery is chasing a fourth Europa League crown, and his warmth towards the competition has been evident from the get-go. He described trips to Ukraine and Azerbaijan in the group stage as a reward for the previous season’s successes, something to be proud of, rather than a punishing schedule brought about by a failure of Arsene Wenger to pin down a top-four finish.
Arsenal looked like a serious European contender in the previous round, as they swept Napoli aside 3-0 over two legs. They played with energy and skill at the Emirates, and then solidity and patience in Italy. They have won all three of their home games in the knockout phase, and it’s their home form that could be the key to this tie. It’s also worth noting that as a former Valencia coach, Emery had a modicum of inside information.
The loss of Aaron Ramsey to injury is a bitter blow, as he has sparkled at this level. Emery will have to decide whether to deploy two strikers, or leave either Alexandre Lacazette or Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang out.
Could fatigue factor wreck Valencia’s season?
It’s been a strange season for Valencia. At one stage, coach Marcelino was being roundly criticised, as his team languished in mid-table in La Liga following a slew of drawn matches. In the Champions League Los Che were twice beaten by Juventus, and weren’t quite bold enough in a goalless draw at Old Trafford, with a disjointed and demoralised Manchester United there for the taking.
Then the picture began to brighten. Draws were turned into wins by more decisive and accurate finishing. Progress was made in the Copa del Rey, and the extraordinary comeback against Getafe in that competition (Valencia needed two goals in stoppage time of the second leg, and got them) felt like a turning point in the season. Having dropped into the Europa League, Valencia were seconds away from elimination against Krasnodar, only for star player Goncalo Guedes to rescue them at the last.
So here we are, with Valencia in the semi-finals of the Europa League, the final of the Copa del Rey and three points off the top four in La Liga. A wonderful position, but the cracks are starting to show. In the league, Marcelino’s side have lost three of their last five matches, and one wonders what the relentless pressure of playing so many intense and meaningful games is draining from the squad.
There are some exciting performers in the Valencia side. Guedes is a fleet-footed and skilful wide player, Dani Parejo is a sublime string-puller in midfield, and Rodrigo is a dangerous forward who can explode into life. However, midfielders Denis Cheryshev and Geoffrey Kondogbia are likely to miss the game with injury, and former Gunners midfielder Francis Coquelin is suspended.
Gunners to grab first-leg lead
Arsenal have played with great intensity in their last three home games in this competition. They needed to in the last 32 and last 16, with first-leg deficits to overturn. With a potentially tricky trip to the Mestalla looming, a first-leg advantage for Arsenal feels like a necessity.
Valencia won at Celtic and Villarreal in the knockout phase, but they have looked tired in their last two league matches. I think this will be close, but I’ll back Arsenal to edge it at [2.06].
Spanish giants will chase away goal
Marcelino is wedded to his 4-4-2 formation, and although he will want his side to stay compact, they will still offer an attacking threat. Valencia have scored 11 goals in their six UEL games so far this term, and they have scored at least twice in four of their last six La Liga matches.
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest Valencia could grab a goal here, at if we believe Arsenal will win the game that brings Both Teams To Score into play at [1.82] and Over 2.5 Goals at [2.0].
Lacazette to repeat Naples heroics?
A wonderful free-kick from Alex Lacazette broke Napoli’s spirit in the quarter-finals, and killed off a potential comeback from Carlo Ancelotti’s side. The Frenchman has scored 16 goals in all competitions, and he is trading at [2.32] to make that 17.
On the Valencia side of things, I think Goncalo Guedes is overpriced to score at [6.4]. The former Benfica and PSG winger has scored three goals in six Europa League matches, and he has scored six times in his last eight games in all competitions.
Source: BetFair Tips
