Arsenal v Tottenham: Goal-shy duo set for derby stalemate

“The overriding feeling here is that neither side is good enough to get the win. A point would make it an acceptable seven from nine for Arsenal while a derby stalemate is a decent enough outcome for the away team.”

2pts Back the Draw at 3.412/5

Gunners finally making a move

A couple of weeks ago, Arsenal fans were in absolute worst-case scenario territory: they were bottom of the table after three straight defeats while local rivals Tottenham were top with a maximum haul of nine.

But how quickly things change.

Victory for Arsenal in Sunday’s derby and Mikel Arteta’s men will leapfrog their rivals on goal difference.

It’s not exactly been a sensational change of direction but a pair of 1-0 wins at home to Norwich and away to Burnley have been most welcome.

Throw in a couple of League Cup wins over West Brom and AFC Wimbledon and Arsenal have actually won four of their last five games.

Despite that, it still seems as if Arteta is searching for the right formula. Arsenal have used the most different players (26) and had the most starting XI changes (16) in the Premier League this season.

Spurs need to arrest slide

Tottenham will hope that symmetry stays away at the Emirates.

After starting the season with a trio of 1-0 wins over Manchester City, Wolves and Watford, they’ve since lost their latest two by 3-0 scorelines to Crystal Palace and Chelsea. A third 3-0 loss to their fiercest rivals would be a disaster.

Although they edged past Wolves on penalties in the EFL Cup in midweek, Spurs have not won any of their last four games in 90 minutes following those two league defeats and a 2-2 draw away to Rennes in Europe.

In addition, Spurs fans are facing the realisation that football under Nuno Espirito Santo isn’t exactly a joy to watch.

Those three 1-0 wins masked the lack-of-fun factor and with the Harry Kane/Heung-Min Son partnership not clicking, their haul of just three league goals in five matches has to be a concern.

Then again, that’s actually one more than Arsenal!

With home advantage, it’s Arsenal who head the market at 2.35/4. Tottenham are 3.613/5 to bank the three points.

Now to the stat which Spurs fans probably don’t need reminding of: Tottenham have won just one of their last 28 away league games against Arsenal.

That’s a miserable run and 16 of those matches have ended in defeat.

But the overriding feeling here is that neither side is good enough to get the win. A point would make it an acceptable seven from nine for Arsenal while a derby stalemate is a decent enough outcome for the away team.

So it’s The Draw at 3.412/5 that starts flashing when perusing the match odds and that’s my main bet.

I’m surprised to see the Over/Unders market so balanced given that both sides have struggled horribly for goals this season.

Arsenal are the joint-lowest scorers with two (the same as Norwich and Wolves) while Tottenham have just three.

Therefore, with both attacks misfiring or, more accurately, just not creating enough chances, Under 2.5 Goals at 1.9420/21 makes plenty of appeal.

I’d also be looking to play ‘No’ in the Both teams to Score market at 2.1211/10.

Remarkably, it’s landed in all five of Tottenham’s Premier League games and in all seven of Arsenal’s matches this term if adding in cup ties.

I tend to follow trends but surely this one can’t last. Overall, although it’s a shorter price, I prefer the Under 2.5 Goals as I think 1-1 is a live runner.

I’m not expecting many goals but if punters want some good omens on Harry Kane scoring his first Premier League goal of the campaign the stats oblige.

Kane is the all-time highest goalscorer in competitive meetings between Arsenal and Tottenham, firing in 11 goals.

One feasible Bet Builder option is Kane to score first in a draw at just under 2928/1.

As for in-running punts, let’s take note that the five combined wins shared by these two teams have all been 1-0.

That tells us that both are good at hanging onto a lead so perhaps the first goal will be the decider. If it comes early, there could be some decent value in backing it to stay that way.

Opta Stat

Just one of the last 10 Tottenham managers (to take charge in a north London derby) has won their first top-flight meeting against Arsenal (D5 L4), though it was José Mourinho in July 2020. Nuno Espírito Santo will be the 10th different individual Spurs manager whose first north London derby came away from home, with just one of the previous nine emerging victorious (Peter Shreeve in January 1985, otherwise D5 L3).