League One man Alan Dudman offers up his tactical insight for Sunderland as they face Arsenal in the Carabao Cup on Tuesday, and he explores several Bet Builder options for the quarter-final…
Arsenal v Sunderland
Carabao Cup Quarter-Final
Tuesday 21st December, live on Sky Sports Main Event, kick-off 19:45
Arteta can challenge on two cup fronts
I faced my worst nightmare last week as a West Ham supporter. Arsenal triumphed 2-0 in the Premier League against my boys, and my neighbours above and sideways are both Gunners supporters. Hearing those cheers still rankles – but it puts them in good shape heading into Tuesday.
With just two defeats from their last 17, Arsenal’s progress into the top four in the Premier League has been as swift as the acceleration to not only drop captain Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang from the squad, but also the stripping of the club captaincy for the 32-year-old who seems in limbo and the previous harmonious relationship with Mikel Arteta now appears worse than strained.
The flux and unsteadiness was summed up in a tweet by Richard Jolly, who said that Tony Adams was club captain for 14 years. And they have had 11 in the subsequent 14.
However, the league form is on the up. Gabriel Martnelli has grabbed the opportunity and his eagerness has given the Gunners a bit more. They started like quicksilver against West Ham in a 2-0 victory, with far more urgency pressing high as a group.
With a favourable draw against the lowest ranked opposition in Sunderland, Arsenal do have a realistic chance of silverware in winning the League Cup and trade at 5.104/1 in the winner market . A win on Tuesday would make that the perfect in and out bet.
Black Cats may have to adjust the high press
Lee Johnson’s Sunderland have consistently failed to live up to their pre-season favourites tag for what seems like an eternity. Like a gun going off in a Chekov play by scene two, you can always rely on Sunderland to be 5/2 for the title every season and layers are constantly rubbing their hands in anticipation down in the third tier each and every rolling summer.
They’ve lost a little ground to Rotherham at the top of the table, and are now 7.26/1 in the League One winner market , so for those patient enough, they have been rewarded.
With the latest round of testing, one player has returned a positive sample and won’t be travelling to north London. While Leon Dajaku took a heavy blow on Saturday against Ipswich and Johnson appeared less than positive on the Monday about his chances. Striker Ross Stewart insists it’s business as usual despite all the protocols in place and said: “We’ll go there as huge underdogs and it’s a bit of a free hit but at the same time we will go there with the belief that we can go there and win the tie.”
A Sunderland win in the competition would be the best story in the north east since Kevin Keegan returned to Newcastle, but at 80.079/1 in the Winner market for the trophy, it’s one of optimism. The Peter Cook bet as it was.
As they are on my watch in League One, there has been a sea-change under Johnson as they were far too easy to play against – hence why they used to draw far too many games. Pace and youth has been injected into the side and their play is often at a high intensity on the front foot. Johnson however isn’t totally one-dimensional, as he has been known to sit deeper against the more possession-based teams. MK Dons is a casing point.
The excellent Roker Report online stated that Sunderland’s stats when Johnson took over initially saw him have an immediate impact as his team was not one to dwell on the ball.
My learned colleague Dan Fitch has previewed the game with the outright odds and ways to explore backing Arsenal away from the cramped odds of 1.21/5. Click here to read what Dan has to say.
Another Dan, this time Dan Neil has played well this term for the Mackems. The 20-year-old Academy graduate has scored three this term – including a crucial one in the 2-1 win against Plymouth, but it’s the assists field in which he is excelling, Neil has now registered seven assists in League One this season, the joint highest along with MK Dons playmaker Scott Twine and Fleetwood’s Paddy Lane.
There are big prices on the Sportsbook with him 40/1 for First Goalscorer and 14/1 to Score Anytime. He likes a nutmeg and a killer pass, so it’s not a shock the Mackem faithful chant “Dan Neil, he’s one of our own.”
Sunderland’s Nathan Broadhead has been a fine loan signing – a transfer market that doesn’t always work taking youngsters from Premier League clubs. The Everton man now has five in his last five, which takes him to a tally of seven in 16 this term. He seems to have matured after a loan spell at Burton last term. He’s quick, and his awareness is sharper now. And as the Sunderland Chronicle pointed out recently, he can do well against teams who press from the back with a high line, which is what happened against Ipswich.
The 23-year-old is 6/1 to Score Anytime, and that might be a punt worth taking.
The visitors also have Aiden O’Brien, who has netted four goals in four League Cup appearances this season, one more than he’d netted in his first 11 games in the competition combined.
As Dan pointed out in his preview for Tuesday, Eddie Nketiah has scored in the previous two rounds, and so has the improving Martinelli. Backing the double on the Betbuilder offers little as Arsenal are so short, but the 3-1 scoreline or Both Teams To Score could be an angle.
Siding with Nketiah To Score Anytime and 3-1 pays 14/1 on the double. Even bigger is the Martnelli First Goal and 3-1 at 52/1. But as we’ll go with a corners bet below, and I think both can score here, we can back Eddie in the Corners Handicap -5 and To Score Anytime in a Betbuilder at 3/1.
Arteta’s side have been impeccable in the competition so far – winning 6-0 against West Brom, 3-0 v AFC Wimbledon and 2-0 against Leeds. They easily won the corner battle in the two latter games with scores of 10-2 and 10-4.
A straight bet on the Corners Match offers no value at 1/14, but playing Arsenal on the -5 Corner Handicap looks a good bet at 13/10. Betting that in the Betbuilder double alongside Over 2.5 Goals gives us a nice 5/2 double.
Source: BetFair Tips