Two of the tournament’s heavyweight sides face-off in a potentially thrilling clash. James Eastham picks the smart bets for Ivory Coast v Algeria and Thursday’s other matches…
Goals on cards in do-or-die decider
Ivory Coast v Algeria (Group E)
Thu, 16:00 GMT
Defending champions Algeria are on the brink of going out and have been so poor so far, it’s a big surprise to see them short-priced favourites to beat Ivory Coast.
Algeria went into the tournament as second favourites behind Senegal but their defence of the title has been a disaster: they could only draw 0-0 against Sierra Leone, and suffered a shock 1-0 defeat to Equatorial Guinea last time out.
Djamel Belmadi’s players have the talent and experience to turn things around but their form makes it impossible to justify their odds of 2.265/4 to collect all three points here.
With four points on the board so far, Ivory Coast need only a draw to make the Last 16. They’re 3.65 to win. The large odds on the Elephants throws up the opportunity to back them on the Asian Handicap. With our selection, you’ll make a profit if Ivory Coast win or if the game ends in a draw. For a full guide to Asian Handicap betting, click here.
A second bet is to back the game to have two or more goals. Algeria have to win to stand any chance of staying in the competition, so they’ll have to gamble at some point. Ivory Coast have a host of attacking talent in their ranks, and showed how dangerous they can be on the break with an excellent Sebastien Haller goal in their last match.
At the time of writing, five out of six final group games have had two or more goals, so the stats are in your favour.
Sierra Leone v Equatorial Guinea (Group E)
Thu, 16:00 GMT
Performance-wise, there’s been little to choose between these two sides at the finals so far, so it’s a surprise to see Sierra Leone are such big underdogs for this head-to-head clash.
Sierra Leone are 3.613/5 to win, with Equatorial Guinea 2.77/4 and The Draw 2.829/5. Yet Sierra Leone are unbeaten: they drew 0-0 with defending champions Algeria in their opening game, then twice came from behind to earn a 2-2 draw versus Ivory Coast in their second game.
At those odds, Sierra Leone are worth considering on the Match Odds market. Alternatively, look to Sierra Leone on the Asian Handicap market. With our selection, you’ll earn a profit as long as Sierra Leone avoid defeat.
Our second selection on the game is to back high goals. Sierra Leone have two points on the board, which means they need to win here to be sure of claiming a place in the knockout phase. Sierra Leone will have to take a bold approach, so the game should open up.
The final group games have been generally open and high-scoring, so we’re happy to back this fixture to contain two or more goals as well.
Focus on corners market
Gambia vs Tunisia (Group F)
Thu, 19:00 GMT
Gambia are top of Group F thanks to a fantastic debut performance at the finals that has seen them pick up four points from their opening two games. They need only one more point to make the knockout phase.
Tunisia are one point back on three points, and need to win here to be sure of claiming a Last 16 spot. As an attacking force Tunisia will be buzzing after their 4-0 win over Mauritania in their last match.
Given that Gambia need only a draw and Tunisia will play to win, we can expect Tunisia to do more of the attacking, and potentially force more corners as well.
The corners stats from the games played so far also point towards Tunisia winning more corners: in their first two fixtures, Tunisia won 11 corners and conceded nine. In contrast, Gambia won only four corners and conceded 12 in their first two games.
Given those stats and the way we expect this game to play out, we’re happy to back Tunisia in the Corners Handicap market.
Mali too tricky to read
Mali vs Mauritania (Group F)
Thu, 19:00 GMT
Mali have been one of the toughest teams to read at the finals so far. They earned a 1-0 win over Tunisia in the game that saw the referee prematurely end the fixture, then drew 1-1 with Gambia in a game in which both goals were scored from the penalty spot.
With four points on the board after two matches, Mali need only a point here against Mauritania to secure a Last 16 spot. Mauritania have already been eliminated, so Mali are strong favourites at 1.42/5 to win.
Frankly, however, it’s hard to know whether Mali will go for the big win that would almost certainly secure them top spot in the pool, or settle for the point they need to go through to the next phase.
With such uncertainty, we prefer to leave this game alone.
Source: BetFair Tips
