James Eastham gives you the lowdown and picks his selections ahead of the final Group D games on Wednesday evening…
Back Nigeria to increase goals count
Guinea Bissau vs Nigeria (Group D)
Wed, 19:00 GMT
Nigeria are already through to the knockout phase and that could have a major bearing on how this game plays out on Wednesday evening.
Super Eagles manager Augustine Eguavoen has said that he will rest players, sending out the message that victory is not an imperative here.
Nigeria have played some good attacking football in both of their fixtures so far, seeing off Egypt 1-0 before defeating Sudan 3-1 to clinch their place in the Last 16.
The same attacking style is likely to be on show here, but Nigeria may be a little more lax in other areas of the pitch given that they don’t need to win the match.
Guinea Bissau earned plenty of sympathy after a late wondrous Mama Balde strike was ruled out for a foul in their 1-0 defeat against Egypt last time out, denying Bissau a point against Mohamed Salah’s side. They began the tournament with a 0-0 draw versus Sudan.
With just one point on the board, Guinea Bissau head into this game knowing they have to win to stand any chance of staying in the competition. As a result, there’s a good chance this game will open up at some point.
Nigeria are 1.758/11 to win. Those odds would normally be tempting but we’re not prepared to back the Super Eagles to collect all three points given that they’ve already qualified for the knockout phase, and need only a draw to secure top spot in Group D.
Instead, back Over 1.5 and 2.0 on the Goal Lines market at 1.9520/21. Whoever’s in their line-up, Nigeria will naturally look to attack, and Guinea Bissau will need to gamble more than they have done in their opening two games in order to try to claim the unlikely win they need to maintain their interest in the competition.
With our selection, you’ll make a profit as long as there are two or more goals in the game. At the time of writing, 10 of the last 14 games played at the finals have featured two or more goals.
Hosts too strong for strugglers Sudan
Egypt vs Sudan (Group D)
Wed, 19:00 GMT
Egypt need a point to be sure of claiming a spot in the knockout phase but they will want to prove a point against Sudan.
As mentioned above, The Pharaohs won by only a single goal against Guinea Bissau (1-0) in their last match and were labelled lucky by many after Guinea Bissau had a late equaliser controversially ruled out.
Egypt may feel aggrieved by those conclusions. The truth is that they dominated for long spells against Guinea Bissau, and had the better chances. With a little more accuracy in front of goal, they could have won by two or three goals.
The criticism they’ve faced should sting Egypt into action. They’ll want to round off the group phase with a win even though a draw would see them through to the Last 16 in second place behind Nigeria.
Sudan have been one of the tournament’s weakest sides so far. It’s hard to see them putting up meaningful resistance if Egypt hit their stride.
Sudan began with a creditable 0-0 draw against Guinea Bissau but lost 3-1 to Nigeria in their second game, and were taken apart at times by some good attacking from the Super Eagles.
A similarly defensive and vulnerable performance here would see Sudan suffer a second consecutive defeat, and potentially by a similar margin to their loss against Nigeria.
Egypt are an understandably short 1.251/4 to win. For better odds, we prefer to back them on the Asian Handicap market. With our selection, you’ll make a profit as long as Egypt win by two or more goals. For a full guide to Asian Handicap betting, click here.
Prem Watch
As usual, all eyes will be on Salah as Egypt take on Sudan. The Liverpool striker produced a Man of the Match performance and scored the only goal against Guinea Bissau.
Salah’s chances of claiming the tournament top goalscorer prize appear to be already over, however: Cameroon’s Vincent Aboubakar has raced away from the pack with five goals already. But Salah can be backed to find the net against Sudan at a price of 1.625/8 in the Anytime Goalscorer market.
Alex Iwobi may be handed his first start of the tournament for Nigeria against Guinea Bissau. The Everton winger has appeared as a substitute in their two games to date, and will be keen to impress if he makes the starting line-up. He’s 6.05/1 in the Anytime Goalscorer market.
Source: BetFair Tips
