Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides scoreline predictions from Serie A as three teams battle for two top-four spots…
Head-to-head weakness means nothing less than a win will do for Juventus, and even that might not be enough to secure a top-four berth.
Cagliari to finish strong
Cagliari v Genoa
Saturday, 19:45
Watch on Betfair Live Video
When Leonardo Semplici arrived at the Sardegna Arena in February, the idea that Cagliari would be safe with a game to spare would have felt preposterous. However, after losing just four of 14, the Sardinians have the pressure off as they play host to Genoa. The visitors have averaged 1.76 xGA across their last six, and Infogol’s model backs Semplici’s men to end the season unbeaten in eight.
Crotone to fall short in final game
Crotone v Fiorentina
Saturday, 19:45
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Crotone haven’t done enough to remain in contention ahead of their season closer, but victory over Fiorentina would at least guarantee they don’t finish bottom of the pile. The Viola have been unpredictable of late, and Infogol anticipates a close-run thing, but Giuseppe Iachini’s visitors are tipped to have just enough to come out on top at Ezio Scida.
Parma to end up bottom of the table
Sampdoria v Parma
Saturday, 19:45
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Parma’s Serie A spell has ended with a whimper rather than a bang, and Infogol’s model suggests we should not be surprised if their campaign concludes with a ninth straight defeat. Roberto D’Aversa hasn’t overseen a single away win since arriving in January, and the Gialloblu’s 0.98 xGF per game on the road is the joint-worst in the league, suggesting hosts Sampdoria shouldn’t find this especially tough.
Inter to cross 90-point threshold
Inter Milan v Udinese
Sunday, 14:00
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Last weekend’s loss in Turin means Inter have been made to wait to hit 90 points, and the Nerazzurri won’t be able to surpass the tally earned by Antonio Conte’s last title-winning side in England. However, with a home clash against Udinese on the horizon and a near-spotless record at the San Siro, Conte’s men are 73% favourites with Infogol to close out the campaign by completing a perfect home points return in 2021.
Atalanta to give Milan a nervy finish
Atalanta v AC Milan
Sunday, 19:45
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Milan had chances to wrap up a top four finish last weekend, but failed to convert their chances against Cagliari. Stefano Pioli’s side need three points in Bergamo to guarantee Champions League football next term, and a league-best away record could help, but Infogol’s model backs an Atalanta side with 2.18 xGF per game at home to clinch second with a win and leave Milan reliant on other results.
Juventus to do their part in top-four challenge
Bologna v Juventus
Sunday, 19:45
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Head-to-head weakness means nothing less than a win will do for Juventus, and even that might not be enough to secure a top-four berth. However, a win over Bologna in January lifted Andrea Pirlo’s team from fifth to fourth and the Bianconeri will hope it’s a good omen. The numbers support Pirlo’s men, too, with hosts Bologna averaging 1.71 xGA at home – the worst of the 17 non-relegated sides in Serie A – and Infogol giving the visitors a 53% chance of success.
Napoli to see off out-of-form Verona
Napoli v Verona
Sunday, 19:45
Watch on Betfair Live Video
A fourth win on the spin would ensure Champions League football for Napoli, and it’s a run they’ve achieved twice already this season. Infogol backs Rino Gattuso’s side to see off Verona, who were beaten by already-relegated Crotone in their last away trip and average just 1.09 xGF per away game, though the Gialloblu’s win in the reverse fixture should ensure they’re taken seriously.
Sassuolo to keep up their strong finish
Sassuolo v Lazio
Sunday, 19:45
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Sassuolo have won four of their last six and averaged 1.98 xGF in their last three, so will back themselves to see off a Lazio side whose top-four charge faltered over the final month of the season. Infogol’s model gives the hosts a narrow edge over Simone Inzaghi’s team, who have suffered eight of their 11 league defeats this term away from home
Roma to cling onto European football
Spezia v Roma
Sunday, 19:45
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Spezia clinched their survival with a victory last weekend, which could end up being a good thing given Roma’s knowledge that a win can take them into the Europa Conference League. These sides have played out thrillers at the Olimpico in league and cup this season, and Infogol’s model offers a 63% chance of more than 2.5 goals at Alberto Picco, but the visitors are expected to leave with the points.
Benevento to finish with another loss
Torino v Benevento
Sunday, 19:45
Watch on Betfair Live Video
This game looked set to be a straight fight for survival, but Benevento’s failure to beat Crotone – coupled with Torino earning a point from their game in hand – mean Pippo Inzaghi’s visitors are already relegated. The 2019/20 Serie B champions are winless since a shock victory at Juventus in March, and an away xGA or 1.94 per game is part of the reason they’ll be back in the second tier next season. Infogol anticipates that average to get a tiny bit worse with defeat in Turin.
***
Source: Betfair Italian
