Chloe Beresford uses Infogol stats to make correct score predictions for every game in Serie A this weekend as the action resumes in Italy’s top flight.
Easy evening v Empoli?
Inter v Empoli
Friday May 6, 17:45
Live on BT Sport 2
The Infogol model gives Empoli just a 10% chance of winning this match and it is easy to see why, the Tuscan side having not beaten Inter since April 2006. Since then, the Nerazzurri are undefeated across 16 meetings with Friday’s opponents, a streak that includes victory in each of their last eight encounters.
Meanwhile, Empoli have won just one of their last 18 matches this season, and have conceded two or more goals in their last eight meetings with Inter.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Back Inter to win 2-1 @ 9.08/1
Getting grim for Genoa
Genoa v Juventus
Friday May 6, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 2
This match will mark the eighth consecutive game against Juventus where Genoa have had a different manager than the previous encounter. The Grifone have won just once over that streak.
Relegation is looming large for them, after winning just twice over the past 32 rounds, while the Bianconeri have lost just one of their last 21 and have scored at least two goals in their last six matches against Genoa in all competitions.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Back Juventus to win 2-0 @ 8.07/1
Tough test in Turin
Torino v Napoli
Saturday May 7, 14:00
Napoli are undefeated in their last 13 matches against Torino in all competitions, and they will be looking to extend that run on Saturday afternoon in hope of extending their slim title hopes.
This could be a high scoring encounter too, given there have been over 2.5 goals scored in each of Napoli’s last four away games in Serie A and in each of Toro’s last three games overall.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Back Napoli to win 2-1 @ 8.07/1
Sass to undo hoodoo?
Sassuolo v Udinese
Saturday May 7, 17:00
Live on BT Sport 1
Sassuolo haven’t won any of their last seven meetings with Udinese, their longest on-going streak in the top flight. This could well be a high-scoring clash at the Mapei too as there have been over 2.5 goals scored in Sassuolo’s last six home games, while Udinese have seen over that total in seven of their last eight Serie A fixtures.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Back a 2-2 draw @ 9.517/2
Samp did enough
Lazio v Sampdoria
Saturday May 7, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 3
By winning the derby against Genoa last week, Sampdoria gave themselves a cushion from the relegation zone and – given their recent record against Lazio – that has probably come at the perfect time.
Samp have not won any of their last 16 meetings with the Biancocelesti, with some high-scoring encounters and over 2.5 goals in 11 of the last 12 meetings between the two.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Back Lazio to win 2-1 @ 7.513/2
Spezia struggle with top sides
Spezia v Atalanta
Sunday May 8, 11:30
Live on BT Sport 3
The Infogol model gives Spezia just a 19% chance of winning this game despite Atalanta winning just one of their last six, and that is entirely down to the home side’s record against Serie A’s better teams.
Indeed, aside from their win over 10th-placed Torino, Spezia have not won a single point against a team in the top half of Serie A this season and are winless in their last four games overall.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Back Atalanta to win 2-0 @ 7.513/2
Bologna bouncing but…
Venezia v Bologna
Sunday May 8, 14:00
Live on BT Sport Extra 2
Bologna are unbeaten in six games, their best run in 10 years and they will be looking to extend that against a Venezia side who have taken just three points from their last 12 at home.
That run has seen the Ligurian outfit lose each of their last four games at the Stadio Penzo. There won’t be many goals as two of Serie A’s lowest scoring teams go head-to-head on Sunday afternoon.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Back Venezia to win 1-0 @ 10.09/1
Salernitana strive to survive
Salernitana v Cagliari
Sunday May 8, 17:00
Live on BT Sport 1
Getting out of the relegation zone is all that matters to Davide Nicola and Salernitana, with a win over Cagliari giving them a direct opportunity to stake their claim for survival. The Sardinians have lost seven of their last eight away games and are in a deep spiral while – with three wins and a draw before Thursday’s encounter with Venezia – Salernitana are finding some form at the perfect moment.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Back Salernitana to win 2-1 @ 9.08/1
Rossoneri rearguard rolling
Hellas Verona v AC Milan
Sunday May 8, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1
Milan are undefeated in their last 13 matches in Serie A, a record that owes much to a resolute defence which has kept a clean sheet in seven of their last eight games.
It is also worth noting that there have been under 2.5 goals scored in eight of Milan’s last nine games and in each of Verona’s last three.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Back Milan to win 1-0 @ 8.07/1
Roma enjoy facing Fiorentina
Fiorentina v AS Roma
Monday May 9, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1
After winning each of their last five meetings with Fiorentina, Roma might well be looking forward to Monday’s visit to the Stadio Artemio Franchi. The home side need to improve their recent form having lost each of their last three matches, while the Giallorossi have only lost one of their last 14 in Serie A.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Back a 1-1 draw @ 6.05/1
Source: Betfair Italian
