Chloe uses Infogol stats to make correct score predictions for every game in this midweek round of Serie A as the first Italian top-flight of the year gets underway.
“Atalanta have only lost two of their 11 league games against Torino since Gian Piero Gasperini was appointed Coach back in 2016.”
Inter’s defence too strong
Bologna v Inter
Thursday January 6, 11:30
Live on BT Sport 1
Inter have been winning at both half time and full time in their last seven matches in Serie A, and have not lost any of their last 16 away games against Bologna in all competitions. Their success this season has been built upon a rock solid defence, with the Nerazzurri keeping a clean sheet in each of their last six outings.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Inter to win 2-0 @ 7.513/2
Cagliari in trouble
Sampdoria v Cagliari
Thursday January 6, 11:30
Live on BT Sport 2
With just one win all season, Cagliari are 19th in the table and in very real danger of relegation. They have failed to score in six of their last seven away matches, have failed to win any of their last 11 league games and have conceded two or more goals in eight of their last nine.
Meanwhile, Sampdoria sit four places and 10 points above them, aware that they are unbeaten in their last seven home games against Cagliari, with the Infogol model giving them a 52% chance of victory and just a 22% chance of defeat.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Back Samp to win 2-1 @ 7.513/2
Lazio to win
Lazio v Empoli
Thursday January 6, 13:30
Live on BT Sport 1
The Infogol model gives Empoli just a 16% chance of winning this game, and given their recent record against Lazio, that makes total sense. The Rome-based have won each of the last six meetings between these two sides, out scoring them by 11 goals to two, while keeping a clean sheet in each of their last five home games against them.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Back Lazio to win 3-0 @ 12.011/1
Can Hellas win away?
Spezia v Hellas Verona
Thursday January 6, 13:30
Live on BT Sport 2
There is an interesting contradiction here as Hellas Verona have won only one of their last 13 away games in Serie A, but have secured victory in each of their last four away matches against Spezia in all competitions. There have been under 2.5 goals scored in five of Spezia’s last six games, so this could well be a low scoring affair with the Infogol model giving a 54% chance of seeing under 2.5 goals in the game.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Back a 1-1 draw @ 6.511/2
Atalanta too much for Toro
Atalanta v Torino
Thursday January 6, 15:30
Live on BT Sport 2
Atalanta have only lost two of their 11 league games against Torino since Gian Piero Gasperini was appointed Coach back in 2016, and his side have seen over 2.5 goals in their last five matches against the Granata in all competitions. Indeed, the boys from Bergamo have scored over 2.5 goals in seven of their last eight league games at home, and it is no surprise that the Infogol model gives them a 66% chance of winning here and a 59% chance of seeing over 2.5 goals.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Back Atalanta to win 3-1 @ 14.013/1
Genoa gasping for air
Sassuolo v Genoa
Thursday January 6, 15:30
Live on BT Sport 3
Winless in their last 16 league games, it is no surprise to see that Genoa have slipped into the bottom three, and this could be another tough outing for them. There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Sassuolo’s last 13 games in Serie A, with that total also topped in their last five meetings with Genoa, who they have beaten on each of their three visits to the Mapei Stadium.
The Infogol model gives Sassuolo just an 18% chance of losing against Genoa who boast Serie A’s fourth-worst attack (19 goals scored) and its fourth-worst defence (37 goals conceded).
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Sassuolo to win 2-0 @ 8.07/1
Goal fest at San Siro?
AC Milan v AS Roma
Thursday January 6, 17:30
Live on BT Sport 1
Roma have scored at least two goals in eight of their last 10 away matches in Serie A, while Milan have scored at least twice in each of their last four matches against Roma in all competitions. With the Infogol model – which gives Milan a 46% chance of victory – reflecting just how tough this clash is to call, the fact it also gives a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals might be the best way to go.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Back AC Milan to win 2-1 @ 10.09/1
Sorry Salernitana
Salernitana v Venezia
Thursday January 6, 17:30
Live on BT Sport 2
There is no doubt that Salernitana are in trouble. They have scored just 11 goals so far this term, six fewer than any other side, while at the other end they have conceded a league high tally of 42. They have actually scored in just one of their last eight matches and have lost each of their last five home games, but it must be noted that Venezia have failed to score in five of their 10 away games.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Venezia to win 1-0 @ 7.06/1
Fiorentina firing
Fiorentina v Udinese
Thursday January 6, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 2
Fiorentina have been excellent at home this season, seeing over 2.5 goals scored in each of their last nine home games in Serie A and scoring two or more themselves in each of their last six at the Stadio Artemio Franchi. La Viola have also won each of their last 14 home matches against Udinese in all competitions, a record they will be looking to continue here as they take on a side who sit seven places and 12 points below them in the table.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Back Fiorentina to win 3-1 @ 12.011/1
Tight affair in Turin
Juventus v Napoli
Thursday January 6, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 1
There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Juventus’s last eight games, with the Bianconeri keeping a clean sheet in six of those matches. It is worth noting that Juve have only lost one of their last nine clashes at home against Napoli, who will be fielding a seriously depleted side in this encounter. With a number of players away at the African Cup of Nations and others suffering with Covid, this could be a cagey encounter between two teams with so much at stake.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Back Juventus to win 1-0 @ 7.06/1
Source: Betfair Italian
