Werder Bremen v Wolfsburg
Sunday, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1
The clock is ticking for Werder Bremen with just a second relegation in their history looking increasingly likely.
Worrying times
They blew their chance to move out of the danger zone on Wednesday, losing 3-0 at home to Eintracht Frankfurt, and so they enter this contest two points behind Fortuna Dusseldorf, who are currently on course to compete in the relegation play-off, and three from a position of complete safety.
Just five games remain for Werder to close the gap but the arrival of Wolfsburg at the Weserstadion is hardly the fixture they’d hand-pick right now.
Firstly, Werder have managed just a single win in 14 home games this season, scoring a paltry nine goals.
But perhaps more important is the fact that sixth-placed Wolfsburg are in form and fully motivated chasing a Europa League spot. In seeking that top-six finish, the Wolves have won four and drawn one of their last five away games.
Away-day joy
Like Bremen, they have a better record on the road than at their own ground. While they too lost to Eintracht in the past week, their last away performance was a highly-impressive one as they triumphed 4-1 at Champions League hopefuls Bayer Leverkusen.
A string of injuries haven’t helped their search for European football but they’ve coped well with losing the likes of William, as they showed at Leverkusen.
For this game, they will also have to do without wide man Renato Steffen due to suspension but they should still be confident of adding to their fine run of away form.
Bremen have had injury problems of their own, although Fin Bartels did return to the starting XI – for the first time in more than 900 days – on Wednesday but asking the winger to go again so soon may be asking a lot.
Fatigue a concern for hosts
Indeed, fatigue looked to be an issue for Bremen on Wednesday when, following a decent start, they faded badly in the second half.
This will be the side’s fifth game in 16 days, all following a two-month hiatus. It’s a run which will have tested the fitness of Florian Kohfledt’s squad to the limit and may well play in Wolfsburg’s hands here.
The visitors will have had eight days between their last game and this one and backing them at [2.08] to win the game looks perfectly reasonable.
With the league’s weakest attack and its joint-worst defence, Bremen simply don’t appeal at [3.9] even though prior to their Eintracht defeat, they did take seven points from a possible nine.
The draw can be backed at [3.7].
Goal-shy hosts
In the goal markets, that woeful Bremen record of nine goals in 14 home games has to be of concern to punters. In their five post-lockdown games (regardless of venue), they’ve managed just three.
However, both teams to score ([1.76] here) has landed in Wolfsburg’s last six away from home and it’s worth noting that they’ve conceded in five of the six games they’ve played away against the current bottom seven.
If you are prepared to trust the hosts to find the target, 3/1 about Wolfsburg winning whilst conceding looks a better bet and one that’s landed in four of their last five away games.
As for the goal line, over 2.5 is at [1.94] which is tempting. It has landed in nine of Wolfsburg’s 12 games in 2020. It’s also been a winner in 57% of their away games across the whole season and 64% of Bremen’s home matches.
This bet doesn’t rely on Bremen scoring and if Wolfsburg can score four at Leverkusen, they are capable of notching three here.
Wolves at the double
However, I’m going to settle on another bet at a similar price, one which puts the emphasis on the visitors and that’s Wolfsburg to score two or more at 19/20.
They’ve managed this in their last five away games and here they face the league’s leakiest defence.
Bremen have let in at least two in 11 of their 14 home matches and not having fans in attendance won’t help their cause.
As more and more games are played behind closed doors, there is little sign of the ‘home advantage’ returning.
Post-lockdown just 23% of games have been won by the hosts compared with 43% prior.
Wolfsburg look very backable here, it’s just finding the right bet with which to do so, and the +1.5 goals looks the best option.
Set-piece threat
For those after something a bit lumpier, it’s worth considering Marin Pongracic to score at anytime – [9.6] on the Exchange and 11/1 with the Sportsbook.
The Croatian defender headed home twice against Leverkusen and Bremen have conceded more goals from set-pieces than any other Bundesliga side. The problem was evident again on Wednesday and it would be no surprise to see Max Arnold’s devilish dead-ball delivery cause them more issues here.
Arnold has helped Wolfsburg be potent themselves from set-plays – only three teams have been more prolific from such situations – so clearly there is potential for a big-priced winner in this market.
Opta fact
Werder Bremen are without a win in their last 12 Bundesliga home games (D3, L9) – an ongoing negative club record in the top flight.
Click here for Dimitar Berbatov’s weekend Bundesliga predictions
Source: Betfair German
