Union Berlin v Schalke 04
Sunday 7 June, 14:30
Live on BT Sport
Union on the slide but destiny still in their own hands
The Iron Ones are slipping closer to the relegation places thanks to a run of form that has seen them take just two points from their last six Bundesliga outings.
Since the restart it’s been three defeats and one draw, and with the teams below them doing better than that, they are now in 14th place – just four points clear of the relegation play-offs.
The good news for Urs Fischer and his players are that their remaining five fixtures look good on paper. Three of them are at home, and after Schalke, they face Koln, Paderborn, Hoffenheim and Fortuna Dusseldorf.
Schalke are in a mess
David Wagner has not enjoyed a good first campaign as Schalke manager. They started off well enough, but they are currently on a run of 11 without a win – losing six of the last seven.
Since the restart, they have lost all four, scored just once and conceded 10. The most concerning thing about that is that aside from Dortmund, the other three opponents are all currently in the bottom six.
A place in next season’s Europa League is now firmly out of the window, but with 10 points between them and Fortuna Dusseldorf in 16th, relegation appears highly unlikely.
Home win on the cards
The hosts are the favourites for this clash, with their odds trading at around the [2.54] mark on the Betfair Exchange. Given their recent form, that sounds a bit short on the face of it, but their opponents have performed even worse lately.
Union’s home record isn’t too bad either, especially as they are a newly promoted side. They have won six of their 14 on their own patch this term, and while they didn’t win either of their two behind closed doors there, one was against Bayern (0-2), and the other was a 1-1 draw with Mainz, where they had 10 men for the entirety of the second half.
Schalke have been truly shocking in recent weeks, as they have been losing to pretty poor teams. Putting the ball in the net has become a real problem for them, and on the road, they have scored just one goal in their last six.
The Royal Blues are as short as [3.25] to take the points, but I wouldn’t entertain that at all, and I can’t see them managing a draw either, at a price of [3.3].
Put your faith in goals
Unlike most Bundesliga matches, Under 2.5 Goals is the favourite here at [1.77], with the Over the outsider at [2.28].
Given Schalke’s struggles in front of goal, I am sure that most people will be leaning towards the Under, but I actually believe that there is a smidge of value in there being three goals or more.
The selection would have landed in the visitors’ last three away games, and three of their four since the league returned.
Two of Union’s last four have also gone Over 2.5, and after firing a blank in their opening two, they did at least score on their two most recent outings.
This game is also a bit of a must-win for both teams really, not so much for league position, but because they are badly in need of a boost, and neither of them are in good form.
Key Opta Stat
Schalke’s Weston McKennie is banned after picking up his fifth yellow card of the Bundesliga season against Werder. The American is Schalke’s top goalscorer in 2020 with two goals.
2019/20 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 54pts
Returned: 42.93pts
P/L: -11.07pts
Source: Betfair German
