Saturday Football Cheat Sheet: All the best bets in one place

Chelsea 1.091/11 v Plymouth Argyle 38.037/1, the Draw 14.013/1
12:30
Live on BBC red button, BBC iPlayer and BBC website

The football league’s most westerly outfit travel to Stamford Bridge to take on the European champions in Saturday’s first FA Cup tie. Our League One expert assesses the chances of an upset…

Alan Dudman says: “Backing Tuchel’s men -3 in the Plymouth +3 market at 2.427/5 gives us something to aim at, especially if the team is akin to the Chesterfield line-up. An early goal will set up that bet nicely, so it could also be worth checking in with the Time Of First Goal market.

“Last term’s early rounds in the FA Cup saw Chelsea hit Morecambe for four and Luton 3-1, but there’s still very little value in the Over 2.5 Goals at 1.331/3. While the Over 4.5 at 2.829/5 will pull in a few backers, the most appealing is the 5.5 bet at 5.59/2. Their xG processes recently have all been low at 1.04, 0.57, 0.61, 1.39 and 0.76, although featured in that run were Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham and Brighton.

“Only Sergio Aguero (16) has scored more FA Cup goals since the 2013-14 campaign than Romelu Lukaku (14), despite not playing in the competition at all in 19-20 & 20-21. Indeed, the Belgian has scored in each of his last seven home matches in the competition across spells with Everton, Man Utd and current club. Already on the mark in the Cup this year, we can use the Betbuilder to play on the striker to Score Anytime, Over 3.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score ‘Yes’ in a treble that pays 3.711/4.”

Alan’s bet: Back Chelsea -3 @ 2.427/5

Everton 2.1211/10 v Brentford 4.03/1, the Draw 5.04/1
15:00

Everton begin life under Frank Lampard with an FA Cup tie against Bournemouth, so can the Toffees start the new era with a win?

Alex Keeble says: “Everton players’ keenness to impress the new manager should cause a dramatic shift up the pitch, while Donny van der Beek starting is likely to leave huge amounts of space in central midfield (especially with Abdoulaye Doucoure out injured). Thomas Frank’s 3-5-2 is well organised at sitting behind the ball and, likely to out-battle Everton for loose balls, can launch quick attacks that expose Lampard’s overly-expansive shape.

“One important feature of Brentford’s play is the speed with which they launch long passes forward for Ivan Toney and Brian Mbuemo, who dove-tail up front to play quick one-touch flicks around the corner for each other. It is easy to imagine these two being slid in behind Everton’s high line, especially with the error-prone Michael Keane in the starting line-up.

Alex’s bet: Back Brentford to qualify @ 2.506/4

Bayer Munich 1.434/9 v RB Leipzig 7.87/1, the Draw 5.79/2
17:30
Live on Sky Sports Football and Betfair Live Video

Bayern boss Julian Nagelsmann faces his old club on Saturday in an intriguing clash from Germany’s top flight.

Kevin Hatchard says: “I felt Leipzig were a value bet in the title race. They have a deep squad with lots of options, and I believed that prolific centre-forward Andre Silva was the missing piece of their puzzle. However, Nagelsmann’s departure left a gaping hole in the coaching department, and his replacement Jesse Marsch didn’t measure up as his replacement.
Nagelsmann had taken the vertical and fast-paced Red Bull approach and had evolved it, teaching his players to play with more variety, and showing them they could keep possession and be effective. Marsch’s desire to return to the Red Bull basics didn’t chime with what his players wanted, and coaches rarely win that type of battle.

Marsch has been replaced by former Schalke boss Domenico Tedesco, another coaching wunderkind who was actually in Nagelsmann’s coaching class. The 36-year-old’s tactical tweaks have revitalised Silva, and have delivered five wins across seven competitive matches. Leipzig have scored at least twice in five of those games.

“Bayern crushed Leipzig 4-1 in the reverse fixture, they hammered Bayer Leverkusen 5-1 at the BayArena and they have already won twice at Borussia Dortmund (once in the league and once in the Supercup). They thrive on these high-pressure occasions, and despite the absence of Leon Goretzka and Alphonso Davies, Bayern should have enough firepower to take three points. However, I suspect Leipzig will score along the way, as Bayern have managed just seven clean sheets in 20 Bundesliga matches.”

Kevin’s bet: Back Bayern and both teams to score @ 2.35/4

Inter 1.758/11 v Milan 4.57/2, the Draw 3.9
17:30
Live on BT Sport 2

The Serie A champions are firm favourites to win when they take on their illustrious neighbours at San Siro…

Chloe Beresford says: “The Milan derby is usually a hotly contested affair, but Milan have a huge injury list to overcome. Meanwhile, Inter have surprisingly only lost one of the last 11 encounters with their cross city rivals, winning six and drawing four while only failing to score in one of those matches.”

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over

Chloe’s bet: Back 2-1 @ 7.513/2

Burnley 2.285/4 v Watford 3.711/4, the Draw 3.3512/5
18:00

It’s the return of Roy Hodgson with a Premier League six-pointer between Burnley and Turf Moor on Saturday evening…

Mark O’Haire says: “Burnley have relished their most recent league meetings with Watford, returning W5-D5-L2 across the duos 12 head-to-heads since 2012. The Clarets have kept clean sheets in each of their last three encounters with the Hornets and also boast an impressive W7-D4-L1 record between the pair at their Turf Moor base dating back to 2004.

“Burnley have tasted success only once in the Premier League this term (W1-D9-L8). But due to various postponements the Clarets have only managed seven outings at Turf Moor, claiming a reasonable W1-D4-L2. Sean Dyche’s side have also posted a competitive W5-D6-L2 return when welcoming bottom-half sides since the start of last season.

“Watford have taken a solitary point from a possible 24 since beating Manchester United 4-1 in November (W0-D1-L7), shipping 20 goals in that run, and leading to Claudio Ranieri’s departure. However, the Hornets have W2-D2-L1 in matches against fellow bottom-five opposition across the campaign, with both victories arriving on the road.”

Mark’s bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.804/5

Tottenham 1.9420/21 v Brighton 4.47/2, the Draw 3.55
20:00
Live on ITV4

Two of the most astute managers in the Premier League, Antonio Conte and Graham Potter, face off in the fourth round on Saturday night.

Paul Higham says: “Tottenham are big favourites here against outsiders Brighton and their run of seven straight home wins against the Seagulls certainly backs those odds up.

“Spurs also won the only other FA Cup meeting between the two in 2005, while Brighton have only won two of their last nine FA Cup games against Premier League teams.

“Tottenham usually get beyond this stage as well, only failing to reach the fifth round once in the last six years, and if Conte is seriously chasing silverware then this looks to be his chance.

“Watch out for the 90 minute draw here at 3.613/5 as Brighton have drawn 12 of their 22 league games and have drawn their last two cup ties in 90 minutes.

“If that’s the case, you can back either team to win in extra time at 6.511/2, but preference is for the home side to pinch it with a low scoring win – it’s around the 3/1 mark.”

Paul’s bet: Back Tottenham & under 2.5 goals @ around 4.03/1

Osasuna 3.9 v Sevilla 2.285/4, the Draw 3.1511/5
20:00
Live on Betfair Live Video

Sevilla must keep up the pressure on Real Madrid in the La Liga title race so three points on Saturday night are a must.

Tom Victor says: “Sevilla continue to maintain La Liga’s best away xGA return, and have conceded just six on the road in real terms. Osasuna have been better at home than their points tally of 11 from 11 games at El Sadar suggests, but this meeting will be a challenge against opponents who have won the last three clashes between the two sides without conceding a single goal.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under

Tom’s bet: Back 0-2 @ 10.09/1