Infogol’s Weekend Euro Tips: Back Dortmund to start with a win

Lucien Favre “has plenty to work with given that his new Dortmund side were the second best attacking side in the league last season (65.74 xG) and the fourth best defensive side (42.12 xG). If he can maintain this process, or even improve it, Dortmund will finish higher than last season.”

Napoli vs AC Milan
Saturday, 19:30
Live on Eleven Sports 2 and Betfair Live Video

Carlo Ancelotti’s reign as Napoli manager got off to the best possible start as they deservedly beat Lazio away from home in their opening game.

They edged what was a tight encounter, with Lorenzo Insigne’s second half goal proving decisive in what was a very hard-fought win (xG: LAZ 1.17 – 1.42 NAP).

Napoli’s set-up was very similar to that of previous manager Maurizio Sarri, with the missing Jorginho the only notable change in personnel, and their patterns were very similar which will please Napoli fans.

AC Milan finished the season strongly under Gennaro Gattuso, pipping Atalanta to sixth spot and a Europa League place.

Many in Milan have been impressed by Gattuso’s fast adaptation to managing at a high level, and he appeared to get the best of his group last season, including getting them to the Coppa Italia Final.

However, in his 24 games in charge very little changed in terms of AC Milan’s process from the preceding 14 games.

Their xGF/90 increased by 0.08, while their xGA/90 decreased by 0.12, so their xGD was actually worse than that of Vincenzo Montella’s early season side.

It appears on the face of it then, that Gattuso had a bit more luck than his predecessor, as Milan’s underlying numbers hardly wavered, but their actual numbers did increase.

Expect Milan to, at some point in the season, regress back to getting the results of early last season.

In this game though, Napoli are expected to prove too strong, and with AC Milan generating an average of just 1.37 xGF/90 last season, they may struggle to breach the home side’s defence, meaning the odds-against price in both teams not to score represents good value.

Dortmund vs RB Leipzig
Sunday, 17:00
Live on BT Sport 1 and Betfair Live Video

The new German Bundesliga season gets under way this weekend, with the standout tie being played at the Westfalenstadion, as Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig do battle.

Dortmund finished the season under the tenure of Peter Stöger, placing fourth over the 34 matches on goal difference.

They were in fact the second-best team in the league last season according to xG, with their process much better than those of both sides that finished ahead of them in the league, Schalke and Hoffenheim.

Lucien Favre has been brought in ahead of the new season, and the ex-Nice boss looks a perfect fit for Dortmund in terms of style of play and the tactical perfectionism he instils in his players.

The Swiss manager has plenty to work with given that his new side were the second best attacking side in the league last season (65.74 xG) and the fourth best defensive side (42.12 xG).

If he can maintain this process, or even improve it, Dortmund will finish higher than last season.

RB Leipzig had a disappointing season last season, finishing sixth and deservedly so according to expected goals.

Their expected goal difference of just 4.16 shows how poor they were being on average just 0.12 xGD better than their opponents each game – compare that to Dortmund’s 0.69.

They struggled defensively last season, conceding an average of 1.38 xG per game, and it doesn’t appear as though Ralf Rangnick has done much to solve this problem in the transfer market.

For Leipzig, this is a tough opening test, and Dortmund represent good value to get their season off to the best of starts with a win here.

Sevilla vs Villarreal
Sunday, 19:15
Live on Eleven Sports 1 and Betfair Live Video

Sevilla got their season off to a flying start by hammering Rayo Vallecano 4-1 away from home, with new loan signing André Silva notching a hat-trick on his La Liga debut.

New manager Pablo Machín will have been pleased with what he saw, as the patterns of play were obvious, unlike previous regimes.

They were very impressive in attack, racking up 3.47 xG over the 90 minutes, but there remains work to be done in defence, as they conceded 2.47 xG.

Like Machín’s Girona side, they will be very entertaining to watch this season, as they frantically press the ball with aggression before attacking swiftly.

Villarreal had a contrasting opening game, as they were defeated by Real Sociedad.

They were, in fact, very unfortunate to lose that game, as based on xG, the Yellow Submarine were the better team on the night (xG: VIL 1.73 – 0.74 SOC).

Last season under Javier Calleja, Villarreal were averaging 1.58 xG in attack and conceding an average of 1.74 xG in defence – so like Sevilla they are a very entertaining team to watch.

The Infogol model calculates that there is a 55% chance of over 3.5 goals in this game, which equates to around 4/5, so there is good value in backing plenty of goals in this match.

Visit infogol.net and get all of our football tips