Bundesliga xG Tips: Wolfsburg and Augsburg to lose ground in Gameweek 21

“Wolfsburg got the three points they needed against Greuther Fürth last time out, but they’re not entirely out of the woods just yet.”

RB Leipzig v Köln
Friday, 19:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video

RB Leipzig’s attacking display at the Allianz Arena should encourage Domenico Tedesco, even if his side ended up losing to Bayern Munich, and a return to Red Bull Arena can prompt a return to form. Visitors Köln have won just twice on the road, with a 1.71 xGA average an issue, and Infogol’s model anticipates a home victory which can lift the hosts above their opponents.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-1 @ 13.0012/1

Bayern to spoil Bochum’s solid home record

Bochum v Bayern Munich
Saturday, 14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Bayern put seven past Bochum in the return fixture, and, while a repeat isn’t exactly likely, the hosts will still be wary despite having only lost twice at home all season. Bochum have outperformed their home xGA by some distance, and the visitors 2.95 xGF away average is so far ahead of anyone else in the Bundesliga that it’s hard to see Thomas Reis’ side getting in their way.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-3 @ 11.0010/1

Frankfurt to knock Wolfsburg back to earth

Eintracht Frankfurt v Wolfsburg
Saturday, 14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Wolfsburg got the three points they needed against Greuther Fürth last time out, but they’re not entirely out of the woods just yet. The game at Deutsche Bank Park pairs two sides who find themselves much worse off after battling for a top-four spot last season, but Infogol backs Oliver Glasner to get one over his former club despite Frankfurt’s home record being nothing to write home about.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.6017/2

Freiburg to revive top-four bid

Freiburg v Mainz
Saturday, 14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Defeat at Köln last weekend saw Freiburg end the weekend outside the top four, but the prospect of Mainz joining them on 33 points can prompt a result from Christian Streich’s men. The visitors have been better than their eight defeats from 10 away league games might suggest, but Infogol’s model still gives the upper hand to the home side as they push for a return to Champions League contention.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1

Fürth to continue losing ground in safety battle

Greuther Fürth v Hertha Berlin
Saturday, 14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Greuther Fürth sit 12 points from safety after their defeat at Wolfsburg last weekend – a result they can have few complaints about based on the overall xG – and games like this are games they really need to win. Unfortunately, Infogol anticipates the opposite outcome against a hit-and-miss Hertha side, who are yet to record their first win of 2022 but are narrow favourites for this bottom-half clash.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.5019/2

Gladbach to triumph in early six-pointer

Borussia Mönchengladbach v Augsburg
Saturday, 14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video

A congested bottom half of the table sees Augsburg in the relegation play-off spot with Gladbach just a point ahead, but Adi Hütter’s hosts should have enough to triumph if they don’t let the occasion get the better of them. Augsburg’s 2.09 xGA away record remains a worry, and one imagines their safety will depend on their ability to pick up points at home like they did last weekend.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1

Leverkusen to claim fourth straight win

Bayer Leverkusen v Stuttgart
Saturday, 17:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Leverkusen have averaged a huge 3.49 xGF per game across their last three, winning all of them, and shouldn’t be caused too many issues by a Stuttgart side coming off three straight defeats. Pellegrino Matarazzo’s visitors have one of the worst away xGF records in the league, and are unlikely to fancy their chances against opponents looking daunting in front of goal.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 8.6015/2

Dortmund to keep hold of second spot

Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund
Sunday, 14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Both of these sides suffered frustrating defeats last time out, and a meeting of two sides in the top four ought to be a curious one even if neither is in peak form. Union have lost just once at home all season, and won the corresponding game last season, but Infogol gives Marco Rose’s visitors the narrow edge in a game which could set the tone for the home side’s top-four ambitions.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.4017/2

Hoffenheim to snap out of losing streak

Hoffenheim v Arminia Bielefeld
Sunday, 14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Arminia have continued to outperform their xG to keep an unbeaten run going, but Infogol’s model anticipates that coming to an end against a Hoffenheim side desperate for a victory themselves. The hosts have lost their last four in all competitions without always looking obviously worse than their opponents, and they’re expected to beat Sunday’s opponents after drawing their last three league meetings with Frank Kramer’s side.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1