Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Bundesliga result and scoreline predictions for a big finale to the season…
“Arminia need three points on Saturday to give themselves any hope of survival, with a three point gap to Stuttgart and a relegation play-off. Unfortunately for them, opponents RB Leipzig also have unfinished business, needing a point to secure a top-four finish.”
Leipzig to send Arminia down
Arminia Bielefeld v RB Leipzig
Saturday, 14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Arminia need three points on Saturday to give themselves any hope of survival, with a three point gap to Stuttgart and a relegation play-off. Unfortunately for them, opponents RB Leipzig also have unfinished business, needing a point to secure a top-four finish. Infogol’s model makes the visitors strong favourites with their 1.73 xGF on the road a factor, though their away results have been hit and miss.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1
Augsburg to finish with a win
Augsburg v Greuther Fürth
Saturday, 14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
For a while, it looked like this game could have a real bearing on the relegation battle. Instead, Fürth are already down while Augsburg secured their safety despite losing their last two with a 3.14 xGA average. Markus Weinzierl’s side will want to finish on a high, though, and Infogol backs them to do just that against opponents who have at least surpassed Schalke’s 18th-place points tally from last term.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.6017/2
Leverkusen to end Freiburg’s top-four dream
Bayer Leverkusen v Freiburg
Saturday, 14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Three straight wins, with a 2.22 xGF average to boot, have ensured Bayer Leverkusen don’t have to face a do-or-die final day meeting with Freiburg. The visitors are desperate for points, though, with last week’s defeat taking their Champions League fate out of their own hands, and Infogol’s model expects it to be so near but yet so far for Christian Streich’s men.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-1 @ 18.0017/1
Dortmund to win in Haaland’s last game
Borussia Dortmund v Hertha Berlin
Saturday, 14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Borussia Dortmund will go into next season without Erling Haaland, after Manchester City agreed a deal in principle for the striker, but they still have a chance to sign off with a win after already confirming second spot. Visitors Hertha are still at risk of dropping into a relegation play-off, but their away average of just 1.01 xGF suggests they may find themselves with one eye on Stuttgart’s result.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Mainz to seal top-half finish
Mainz v Eintracht Frankfurt
Saturday, 14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
With Eintracht Frankfurt due to play in the Europa League final against Rangers just four days after this clash, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see Oliver Glasner rest players. Regardless, though, Mainz’s underlying numbers suggest they can have a slight upper hand against the visitors after losing narrowly at Deutsche Bank Park back in December.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.6017/2
Hoffenheim’s winless run to stretch to nine
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Hoffenheim
Saturday, 14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
A run of just three points from eight games has seen Hoffenheim go from Champions League contenders to mid-table also-rans. Opponents Gladbach will finish just a point behind Sebastian Hoeneß’s side if they win on Saturday, and a 1.88 home xGF average across the season means Infogol’s model backs them to do just that in what could be a high-scoring game.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-1 @ 14.50
Stuttgart to fall short in home finale
Stuttgart v Köln
Saturday, 14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Sasa Kalajdzic’s equaliser at Bayern last week could end up being significant for Stuttgart, who still have a chance of going straight down, facing a play-off or securing their safety outright. Opponents Köln won 1-0 in the reverse fixture and could still go from Europa Conference League to Europa League with a final-day victory, and Infogol gives them the narrowest of edges as they aim to do just that.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 13.0012/1
Union to seal a top-six berth
Union Berlin v Bochum
Saturday, 14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
A second straight season of European qualification is huge for Union, who sealed a top-seven finish by beating Freiburg last time out. A 1.13 home xGA average has played a big part, with just two defeats at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, and Infogol’s model backs Urs Fischer’s men to get the job done against a Bochum side averaging 2.16 xGA on their travels.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 8.808/1
Bayern to claim first win since clinching title
Wolfsburg v Bayern Munich
Saturday, 14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Bayern have taken their foot off the gas since wrapping up the title, but Julian Nagelsmann will want his team to end the campaign with a victory after one point from their last two outings. The league’s best away record in real and expected terms should be enough to carry the visitors to victory against opponents who they crushed 4-0 before the turn of the year.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-3 @ 11.0010/1
Source: Betfair German
