Bundesliga xG Tips: Hertha and Stuttgart to keep sliding in Gameweek 26

“A fifth successive defeat on Saturday could leave Hertha in the bottom two by the end of the weekend, but an unlikely victory would drag Borussia Mönchengladbach back into the relegation picture.”

Mainz to return to winning ways

Augsburg v Mainz
Saturday, 14:30
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After a Covid outbreak brought about the postponement of their game last weekend, Mainz expect to be back in action against an Augsburg side coming off an important three points in Bielefeld. The hosts have averaged just 1.18 xGF this season – home and away – and Infogol backs Bo Svensson’s side to take advantage and pick up all three points at WWK Arena to stay in the top half.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 13.0012/1

Freiburg to make it six without defeat

Freiburg v Wolfsburg
Saturday, 14:30
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Freiburg manager Christian Streich signed a contract extension this week off the back of some impressive league form, and his team will think they can keep it going against a Wolfsburg side averaging 1.65 xGA away from home. Freiburg won the reverse fixture during their unbeaten start to the season, and Infogol’s model backs them to complete a double.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1

Bayern to stop Hoffenheim going five for five

Hoffenheim v Bayern Munich
Saturday, 14:30
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Hoffenheim made it four wins in a row last week, with those victories bringing an average of 2.54 xGF, but Bayern Munich represent a bigger test. The champions weren’t at their best against Leverkusen last time out, but their away average of 2.92 xGF remains the division’s best and they have already put four past this weekend’s opponents once this season.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-3 @ 13.0012/1

Union to enjoy home comforts

Union Berlin v Stuttgart
Saturday, 14:30
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If Union Berlin are to enjoy a second straight season in Europe, they’ll have to make the most of their form at Stadion An der Alten Försterei. Urs Fischer’s side are averaging just 1.28 xGA at home, while opponents Stuttgart have just one away win all season, though the visitors’ victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach last weekend means they have safety in their sights.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1

Gladbach to dent Hertha’s survival hopes

Borussia Mönchengladbach v Hertha Berlin
Saturday, 17:30
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A fifth successive defeat on Saturday could leave Hertha in the bottom two by the end of the weekend, but an unlikely victory would drag Borussia Mönchengladbach back into the relegation picture. Adi Hütter’s side are averaging 2.02 xGF at Borussia-Park, and their attacking qualities can see them get revenge for their 1-0 defeat against the same opponents back in October.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2

Leverkusen to exploit Köln’s away struggles

Bayer Leverkusen v Köln
Sunday, 14:30
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If Köln fail to qualify for Europe, it will be down to an away return of just two wins from 12 so far this term. Their underlying numbers perhaps deserve more, but Leverkusen’s 1.87 xGF home average can carry them to victory against a team they have taken 10 points from in their last four home and away Bundesliga meetings.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 8.808/1

Dortmund to hand Arminia a third straight loss

Borussia Dortmund v Arminia Bielefeld
Sunday, 16:30
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Arminia’s back-to-back defeats have come from a combined xGF of just 0.49 xGF, and even an out-of-form Dortmund should have too much for Frank Kramer’s side. Erling Haaland is back in training for Marco Rose’s side and could make his comeback in a game which the hosts will be desperate to win in order to keep a comfortable gap to the teams below them in the Champions League race.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-1 @ 12.0011/1

Frankfurt to claim first back-to-back wins of 2022

Eintracht Frankfurt v Bochum
Sunday, 16:30
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After winning at the Olympiastadion last weekend, Eintracht Frankfurt have a chance to return to the top half of the table if they can go two for two. Oliver Glasner’s men will come into the game with a little less preparation time than their opponents, thanks to their Europa League involvement on Wednesday night, but Bochum’s 2.13 xGA average away from home puts the ball in the hosts’ court.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2

Leipzig to push Fürth closer to the drop

Greuther Fürth v RB Leipzig
Sunday, 18:30
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Greuther Fürth remain adrift at the bottom, with their 1.96 xGA average the worst in the entire Bundesliga, and a meeting with in-form Leipzig isn’t likely to help. Domenico Tedesco’s visitors have averaged 2.23 xGF in their last three away games in the league and Europa League, and have finally begun picking up away results in the league at the perfect time to overcome their struggling opponents.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.008/1