Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Bundesliga result and scoreline predictions as two strugglers look to pick up points…
“Back-to-back victories have lifted Hertha clear of the drop zone, and they can take another huge step towards safety by beating Arminia at SchücoArena.”
Union to beat relegated Fürth
Union Berlin v Greuther Fürth
Friday, 19:30
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Greuther Fürth’s defeat against Leverkusen last weekend confirmed their relegation, and Infogol doesn’t expect them to deliver a significant improvement away to Europe-chasing Union. The hosts are averaging just 1.19 xGA at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, and will be desperate for revenge after giving their opponents one of just three league wins all season in the reverse fixture.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Hertha to win another six-pointer
Arminia Bielefeld v Hertha Berlin
Saturday, 14:30
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Back-to-back victories have lifted Hertha clear of the drop zone, and they can take another huge step towards safety by beating Arminia at SchücoArena. The hosts are coming off three straight losses, while a home xGF average of just 0.80 will be extremely worrying for a side who can drop nine points behind their opponents if they draw another blank on Saturday.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 12.0011/1
Köln to stay in European hunt
Augsburg v Köln
Saturday, 14:30
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With a seven point gap to the relegation play-off place and three games remaining, Augsburg can make mathematically sure of their safety with a win over Köln. Infogol doesn’t foresee this happening, though, with the visitors favoured to keep their Europa League hopes alive by taking revenge for their surprise loss in the reverse fixture back in December.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 11.0010/1
Dortmund to clinch runner-up finish
Borussia Dortmund v Bochum
Saturday, 14:30
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Dortmund had long looked like falling short in their quest for the title, and last week’s Klassiker loss made sure of it. Second is still up for grabs, though, and victory over Bochum would seal it. The visitors have averaged 2.09 xGA on the road, with a 7-0 defeat at Bayern a particular lowlight, and Infogol backs the hosts to get the job done and finish strongly at home.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2
Bayern to earn sixth successive league win
Mainz v Bayern Munich
Saturday, 14:30
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Bayern have averaged a whopping 2.69 xGF across their last six Bundesliga games, winning five of them, and Mainz will face a tough task to keep them at bay despite putting up a fight in their defeat at the Allianz Arena. Bo Svensson’s side are winless in five, shipping five at Wolfsburg last time out, and another defeat could further damage their chances of a top-half finish.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-3 @ 11.5021/2
Stuttgart to show signs of life
Stuttgart v Wolfsburg
Saturday, 14:30
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Wolfsburg’s back-to-back home wins could be good news for Stuttgart, who will now take on opponents free from lingering fears of relegation. Infogol’s model suggests Pellegrino Matarazzo’s side have been better than their lowly league position indicates, but there’s still very little to choose between the two sides at Mercedes-Benz Arena with Stuttgart holding the narrowest of edges.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Hoffenheim to stick pin in Freiburg’s top four hopes
Hoffenheim v Freiburg
Saturday, 17:30
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Hoffenheim have tightened up at the back in xG terms over their last two games, so visitors Freiburg may be inclined to look past their opponents’ winless run. Christian Streich’s away side were moments away from a fourth successive win last weekend, and will consider their draw with Gladbach an opportunity lost, and further dropped points on Saturday could end their top four hopes for good.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Leverkusen to remain in top four driving seat
Bayer Leverkusen v Eintracht Frankfurt
Monday, 19:30
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It looks increasingly like the top four will be a case of two spots between three teams, and Leverkusen have the highest point tally of the trio. They’ll be looking to benefit from Frankfurt’s European distractions on Monday night, and a 1.81 xGF home average – coupled with a wealth of attacking talent – gives Gerardo Seoane’s men the edge based on Infogol’s model.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1
Leipzig to rebound after bump in the road
Borussia Mönchelgladbach v RB Leipzig
Monday, 19:30
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Leipzig’s home loss against Union Berlin last weekend was worrying, both for the scoreline and the number of chances given up by Domenico Tedesco’s men, and they’ll hope a European semi-final against Rangers doesn’t distract too much. Opponents Gladbach have been undone at times by their 1.79 xGA average at Borussia-Park, and Infogol backs the away side to prevail with both teams finding the net.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-3 @ 14.50
Source: Betfair German
