Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Bundesliga result and scoreline predictions as the top two take on teams callenging for European qualifiction…
“An average of 2.19 xGF per game at Signal Iduna Park has helped Borussia Dortmund claim the best home record in the league, and victory over third-place Leverkusen feels like the kind of result which would guarantee Marco Rose’s side a top-two finish.”
Hertha to rediscover winning touch
Hertha Berlin v Bochum
Friday, 19:30
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Four games without a win have seen Hertha pulled back into the relegation picture, but a home game against one of the worst travellers in the Bundesliga can help them get some breathing room. Bochum’s away average of 2.33 xGA per game is the league’s worst, and three points for Tayfun Korkut’s hosts will be enough to lift them above their opponents and towards mid-table.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Gladbach to move towards mid-table
Arminia Bielefeld v Borussia Mönchengladbach
Saturday, 14:30
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Only five Bundesliga teams have a better xGF return than Gladbach’s 1.72, but they’re looking over their shoulders after back-to-back league defeats and a humbling cup elimination. Arminia have ridden their luck a bit throughout a five-game unbeaten run, and Infogol backs the visitors at SchücoArena, but Adi Hütter’s side know they’ll need to convert chances into goals much better.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.809/1
Union to continue winning run
Augsburg v Union Berlin
Saturday, 14:30
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Union Berlin will be put to the test in their first game since losing Max Kruse to Wolfsburg, but Infogol still backs Union to pick up a fourth successive victory in all competitions. Hosts Augsburg have blown hot and cold at home this season, and won the corresponding fixture last term, but the visitors’ top-four berth hasn’t happened by accident and they are expected to have the edge.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 11.0010/1
Köln to close gap to Freiburg
Köln v Freiburg
Saturday, 14:30
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Two of this season’s surprise packages go head-to-head at RheinEnergieStadion, with both in contention for a European finish. Freiburg have two shots at it, thanks to their run in an open DFB-Pokal, but Infogol’s model backs Köln to peg them back by exploiting the visitors 1.73 xGA average and closing to within a single point of Christian Streich’s men.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.5019/2
Hoffenheim to suffer another setback
Mainz v Hoffenheim
Saturday, 14:30
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Three straight losses have seen Hoffenheim drop out of Champions League contention and suffer cup elimination, and another defeat on Saturday would be another blow for Sebastian Hoeneß. Mainz’s cup dreams ended in the last 16 as well, but Infogol’s model backs Bo Svensson’s side to rebound faster than their opponents and push back towards the top half of the Bundesliga.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 11.0010/1
Frankfurt to pick up first win in four
Stuttgart v Eintracht Frankfurt
Saturday, 14:30
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Eintracht Frankfurt saw their European push dealt a blow by a surprise defeat at home to Arminia Bielefeld last time out, but fellow strugglers Stuttgart are not expected to cause as many problems. The hosts have lost four of their last five, averaging just 1.00 xGF per game in the process, and Infogol backs Oliver Glasner’s side to have a slight edge over their opponents at Mercedes-Benz Arena.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.5019/2
Bayern to end Leipzig’s winning run
Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig
Saturday, 17:30
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Three straight league wins with a 2.31 xGF average make Leipzig dangerous opponents for Bayern Munich, but Julian Nagelsmann’s side have found an extra gear of late. The visitors are in better shape than they were when losing 4-1 at home to the champions earlier in the season, but even that is unlikely to be enough when their former manager’s side has averaged 2.87 xGF per game at home.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-1 @ 11.5021/2
Dortmund to widen gap to Leverkusen
Borussia Dortmund v Bayer Leverkusen
Sunday, 14:30
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An average of 2.19 xGF per game at Signal Iduna Park has helped Borussia Dortmund claim the best home record in the league, and victory over third-place Leverkusen feels like the kind of result which would guarantee Marco Rose’s side a top-two finish. The visitors have been solid on the road, but suffered from giving their opponents too many chances in the reverse fixture and could run that risk again.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-1 @ 15.0014/1
Wolfsburg to earn priceless win
Wolfsburg v Greuther Fürth
Sunday, 16:30
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Wolfsburg continue to hover just above the relegation zone, and a failure to beat bottom side Fürth would be a huge concern. The visitors are averaging 1.97 xGA per game this season, and are still some distance from safety, but an improved run of results means Florian Kohfeldt’s hosts will need to be careful if they’re to meet Infogol’s expectations of a significant home win.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1
Source: Betfair German
