Bundesliga xG Tips: Bayern and Köln to bounce back in Gameweek 23

“You’re unlikely to see a higher chance of victory this weekend than the 91% offered to Bayern by Infogol’s model, but that is what top vs bottom in the Bundesliga looks like right now.”

Mainz to stop Leverkusen momentum

Mainz v Bayer Leverkusen
Friday, 19:30
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Leverkusen recorded their fourth win on the spin last weekend to open up a seven-point gap to fourth place, but Infogol’s model expects Gerardo Seoane’s side to let the chasing pack get a sight of them by losing on Friday night. Infogol’s xG table has Mainz above their opponents – as opposed to 10 points behind, as is the case in the real table – and Bo Svensson’s side have the narrowest of edges despite their rivals’ recent form.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 13.0012/1

Union to avoid sliding further

Arminia Bielefeld v Union Berlin
Saturday, 14:30
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Union will be frustrated by their defensive displays in their last two outings, both of which resulted in defeat, but chance-creation showed they should fancy themselves to get something in Biefeld despite drawing successive blanks. The hosts were poor defensively at Hoffenheim last time out, and Infogol’s model backs Urs Fischer’s side to complete the double over Arminia after winning the reverse fixture 1-0.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 11.0010/1

Freiburg to revive top four hopes

Augsburg v Freiburg
Saturday, 14:30
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More dropped points last time out saw Freiburg fall to sixth, and Christian Streich will know a further setback could lead to their Champions League dream falling further out of grasp. Fortunately for Streich’s men, opponents Augsburg are averaging a worrying 1.65 xGA at home this term, and they have sat in the bottom four ever since losing the reverse fixture back in September.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.5019/2

Stuttgart to spoil Bochum’s party

Stuttgart v Bochum
Saturday, 14:30
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Bochum’s 4-2 victory over Bayern Munich last weekend certainly caught the eye, and Thomas Reis won’t care too much about the xG given the scoreline. This weekend presents a real test, though, as Reis’ men need to overcome a poor away record against a Stuttgart side for whom three points would be absolutely priceless in their fight against the drop.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1

Wolfsburg to go three for three

Wolfsburg v Hoffenheim
Saturday, 14:30
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Successive victories have eased Wolfsburg’s relegation worries and moved them towards mid-table, and they have a chance to continue that trend against Champions League-chasing Hoffenheim. The visitors have averaged 1.63 xGA across their last four in the league to ensure their top four hopes hang in the balance, and Infogol’s model anticipates a narrow victory for the hosts at Volkswagen Arena.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 11.5021/2

Köln to rebound after tough run

Köln v Eintracht Frankfurt
Saturday, 17:30
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A run of one win from five has seen Köln exit the DFB-Pokal and slide further from the top four, but they will hope their form at RheinEnergieStadion – where six of their eight wins have come – will help matters. Opponents Frankfurt haven’t lost on the road since early December, and Infogol anticipates a close contest, but Steffen Baumgart’s side are expected to have the upper hand.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.6017/2

Bayern to rebound from Bochum setback

Bayern Munich v Greuther Fürth
Sunday, 14:30
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You’re unlikely to see a higher chance of victory this weekend than the 91% offered to Bayern by Infogol’s model, but that is what top vs bottom in the Bundesliga looks like right now. While the visitors may have some encouragement after winning last weekend while their opponents lost, the champions don’t tend to lose two league games on the spin and can point to a frightening 2.89 xGF average at the Allianz Arena.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 4-1 @ 10.009/1

Dortmund’s Rose to see off former club

Borussia Dortmund v Borussia Mönchengladbach
Sunday, 16:30
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While Gladbach will have more preparation time than their rivals thanks to Dortmund’s Europa League involvement, the hosts’ home record ought to work in their favour. Since Marco Rose arrived at Signal Iduna Park, a 2.14 xGF home average has brought 27 points from a possible 33, and even a recent defeat at home to Bayer Leverkusen is unlikely to deter Rose’s squad against their manager’s former employers.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-1 @ 11.5021/2

Leipzig to increase pressure on Hertha’s Korkut

Hertha Berlin v RB Leipzig
Sunday, 18:30
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It is looking increasingly likely that Tayfun Korkut won’t be Hertha manager next season, with Roger Schmidt among the favourites to take over after the current boss failed to build on a promising start. Visitors Leipzig remain unconvincing on the road despite their 1.88 xGF average, but Domenico Tedesco’s men are still expected to produce a win which would keep them in the top four.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.008/1