Bundesliga xG Tips: Arminia and Wolfsburg to gain ground in Gameweek 19

Freiburg will be frustrated after throwing away a two-goal lead of their own last time out, and Dortmund’s eight wins from nine at home could well become nine from 10.

Borussia Dortmund v Freiburg
Friday, 19:30
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Dortmund’s comeback in Frankfurt last weekend kept their title hopes just about alive, and Marco Rose’s side can widen the gap to those below them with a win over fourth-place Freiburg. The visitors will be frustrated after throwing away a two-goal lead of their own last time out, and Dortmund’s eight wins from nine at home could well become nine from 10.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-1 @ 13.0012/1

Bayern to rebound against in-form Köln

Köln v Bayern Munich
Saturday, 14:30
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Bayern didn’t look at their best last weekend as they fell to Borussia Mönchengladbach, but the champions rarely lose two in a row in the Bundesliga. Opponents Köln have been in impressive form of late, winning three on the spin, but the numbers behind those victories don’t look entirely sustainable and Infogol’s model expects that run to come to an end on Saturday.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-3 @ 11.0010/1

Mainz to remain solid at home

Mainz v Bochum
Saturday, 14:30
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Mainz have lost just once at home this term, averaging 0.97 xGF at Mewa Arena, and the visit of Bochum can allow Bo Svensson’s side to rebound after successive defeats on the road. The away side have one of the league’s worst away xGA returns at 2.38 per game, and Infogol backs the hosts to reinvigorate their European push by claiming all three points.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.809/1

Leipzig to keep Stuttgart in trouble

Stuttgart v RB Leipzig
Saturday, 14:30
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Stuttgart’s season-long average of 1.66 xGA is the return of a team which needs to show improvement to pull away from danger, and Saturday’s game will be a test of whether visitors RB Leipzig are over the worst of their away form. Domenico Tedesco’s team have averaged 3.05 xGF across their last four league games, and they certainly have the goods to get the win if they put away their chances.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.4017/2

Union to dent Hoffenheim’s top-four bid

Union Berlin v Hoffenheim
Saturday, 14:30
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Hoffenheim face a big test in their pursuit of Champions League football as they take on a Union side that are notoriously hard to beat at Stadion an Der Alten Försterei. Union have taken five points from the last three meetings with Sebastian Hoeneß’s men, and victory can help bring them level with their third-place opponents and keep the top four race wide open.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.5019/2

Kohfeldt to earn respite from Wolfsburg struggles

Wolfsburg v Hertha Berlin
Saturday, 14:30
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The new manager bounce under Florian Kohfeldt remains a distant memory, with Wolfsburg dropping from Champions League competitors to relegation contenders. The clash with Hertha is huge, with victory taking Kohfeldt’s side above their opponents while defeat would increase pressure on the boss, but the visitors 0.88 xGF average on the road will give the hosts hope of a rare win.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2

Gladbach to prolong Leverkusen’s winless run

Borussia Mönchengladbach v Bayer Leverkusen
Saturday, 17:30
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It’s pretty clear where Leverkusen’s issues lie, with an average of 2.27 xGA per game across their last four outings resulting in 11 goals conceded and not a single victory. They travel to a resurgent Gladbach side on Saturday, with Adi Hütter’s men pulling away from danger with a win at the Allianz Arena last time out, and Infogol backs the hosts to make it three games unbeaten.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 11.5021/2

Frankfurt to rebound from Dortmund setback

Augsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt
Sunday, 14:30
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Borussia Dortmund’s late comeback last week will have hurt Eintracht Frankfurt, but Oliver Glasner’s side have a chance to turn things around after seeing how their top-four rivals get on earlier in the weekend. The reverse fixture against Augsburg ended goalless in August, but Infogol’s model backs the visitors to step it up and secure back-to-back away wins after winning at Borussia-Park in December.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.6017/2

Arminia to open up relegation fight

Arminia Bielefeld v Greuther Fürth
Sunday, 16:30
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Arminia Bielefeld have been in the bottom two since October, but victory over bottom side Greuther could lift them as high as 14th if other results also go their way. A lack of goals will be the main obstacle, with Frank Kramer’s side averaging just 0.88 xGF at home, but Infogol backs them to triumph against opponents whose recent uptick in form hasn’t come with an improvement in underlying numbers.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 8.808/1