Bayern to nail down another crown
Werder Bremen v Bayern Munich
Tuesday 16 June, 19:30
Live on BT Sport 1 and Betfair Live Video
In April last year, on a warm Wednesday evening in Bremen, Bayern Munich won a pulsating DFB Cup semi-final 3-2 at the Weserstadion against a Werder side that was playing thrilling football. Since then, so much has changed, on and off the field.
Bremen saw themselves as Europa League qualification contenders at the time, and now the only thing on their agenda is staying in the top flight. Saturday’s remarkable 5-1 win at Paderborn (they had only scored 30 league goals all season before the game at the Benteler Arena) has boosted their survival hopes. Florian Kohfeldt’s side is now behind third-bottom Fortuna Düsseldorf on goal difference, and fourth-bottom Mainz are only three points better off. Werder visit Mainz this Saturday, so an incredible piece of football escapology is within reach.
Since that balmy April evening, Bayern have changed their coach, with spectacular results. Although Niko Kovac won a domestic double in his only full season in charge, he never enjoyed the support and belief in his ability that his successor Hansi Flick does. Flick has earned that bond with his players, getting the best out of them with astute tactical adjustments and a demand for more intensity. Bayern have won 21 of their last 22 games in all competitions, and another victory on Tuesday will secure an unprecedented eighth straight Bundesliga title.
Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Müller are back after suspension and raring to go, and they face a Werder team that has the worst home record in the division. Werder have scored one goal in their last nine home games, and they haven’t won a Bundesliga match at the Weserstadion since September. With that massive showdown against Mainz on the horizon, one wonders whether Kohfeldt will pick his strongest team for a game that is unlikely to yield any points. After all, Werder have lost their last 18 league matches against the Bavarian giants. In the reverse fixture, they were smashed 6-1 at the Allianz Arena.
You can use the Same Game Multi to back a double of Bayern to win by two goals or more, and Lewandowski to score at any time at [1.84]. The Polish international has scored in 12 of his last 14 appearances, and has 30 league goals this season.
Hertha to bounce back
Freiburg v Hertha Berlin
Tuesday 16 June, 19:30
Live on Betfair Live Video
Hertha Berlin’s outside chance of securing a Europa League spot have receded dramatically in the last two matchdays. First, they lost a tight game 1-0 at Borussia Dortmund, and then they were thrashed 4-1 at home by Eintracht Frankfurt. It’s worth noting that the capital club were 1-0 up at half time, but the sending-off of defensive behemoth Dedryck Boyata proved critical. Given that Hertha have spent most of a chaotic season battling the drop, they’ll just be pleased to be safe from automatic relegation.
A win at Freiburg could reignite their hopes of snatching seventh, and the Europa League spot that now comes with it. Freiburg are just a point off the top seven, after taking four points from their last two matches. However, it’s worth noting that they conceded lots of chances in a 1-0 win over Borussia Monchengladbach, and had to come back from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 with Wolfsburg on Saturday.
Christian Streich’s team has only won one of the last six league games, and at home they have lost five of their last eight. I’ll back Hertha Draw No Bet here at [1.89].
Paderborn to produce gesture of defiance
Union Berlin v Paderborn
Tuesday 16 June, 19:30
Live on Betfair Live Video
Although Paderborn finished above Union Berlin in last season’s Bundesliga 2. table, it’s perhaps no surprise that their positions have been reversed in the top flight. Union spent money on experienced recruits like Christian Gentner and Neven Subotic, while Paderborn stuck to a budget of 11 million euros, and relied largely on the players who had won promotion.
Union had been on a bad run before Saturday’s win at Köln, a result that significantly eased their relegation fears. They defended diligently, and worked incredibly hard. Their dominion at set plays came to the fore once again, as both of their goals came from corners.
Paderborn were smacked 5-1 at home by second-bottom Werder Bremen, but that result was out of keeping with their general form. Although they are on the brink of relegation, Steffen Baumgart’s team have been fiercely competitive recently, and on the road they have ground out three straight draws.
Union haven’t won a home game since January, and [1.66] for the home win seems too short here, so I’ll lay the hosts.
Source: Betfair German
