After picking up another profit in midweek, Kevin Hatchard’s back with three more picks, all at odds-against.
Hoffenheim can expose visitors’ flaws
Hoffenheim v Borussia Mönchengladbach
Saturday 18 December, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video
These are testing times for everyone at Borussia Mönchengladbach. The Foals have lost their last four Bundesliga matches, and have leaked 17 goals in the process, and their low confidence was there for all to see in Wednesday’s 3-2 home defeat against Eintracht Frankfurt. Despite taking an early lead, Adi Hütter’s side gave away a cheap goal on the stroke of half-time, fell behind, and although they levelled at 2-2, they conceded the winner just seconds later. This is a Gladbach team playing without control or stability.
Given that this is a team in crisis that’s on the cusp of being dragged into a relegation battle, a trip to Sinsheim to face in-form Hoffenheim isn’t exactly what the doctor ordered. Hoffenheim have risen to fourth in the standings, and they have won four of their last five matches. At the BayArena in midweek, TSG came back from 2-0 down to grab a 2-2 draw.
Although the PreZero Arena isn’t exactly an intimidating venue, Hoffenheim have racked up six straight wins there in league and cup, scoring at least twice in all of those victories. Nine of their last 12 games have featured at least three goals, and given the Foals’ defensive issues, it’s hard to see a dull game here.
I can’t see Gladbach winning this, so I’ll back Hoffenheim/Double Chance and Over 2.5 Goals on the Sportsbook at 2.111/10. That gives us the 2-1 and 3-0 home wins, but also covers a 2-2 draw and a crazy 3-2 or 4-3 home success. Don’t be surprised if this becomes an end-of-year shootout, so I wouldn’t put you off backing Over 3.5 Goals here at 2.3611/8.
Bayern’s big hitters can shine
Bayern Munich v Wolfsburg
Friday 17 December, 19:30
Live on Sky Sports and Betfair Live Video
While it initially seemed as if coach Florian Kohfeldt could repair the damage left by his predecessor Mark van Bommel, it now looks as if it’ll take a lot longer to get VW-backed Wolfsburg back on the road. A run of six straight competitive defeats has seen the club crash out of the Champions League, and they don’t look like qualifying for the competition next season.
Wolfsburg are now running into in-form league leaders Bayern, who crushed Stuttgart 5-0 in midweek, as Serge Gnabry netted a hat-trick against his former club. Those exploits should guarantee Gnabry a starting spot for Bayern’s final league game of 2021.
Robert Lewandowski has plenty of motivation. If he scores, he’ll break Gerd Müller’s long-standing record for Bundesliga goals in a calendar year, and the Pole loves playing Wolfsburg. He once famously scored five goals in nine minutes against the Wolves, and that was as a sub.
If you look at the #OddsBoost section of the Sportsbook, you see that the price of Lewandowski and Gnabry to have at least two shots on target each has been lifted to 3.55/2. Keep an eye on the team news, and if both men start, go for it. Wolfsburg have leaked 18 goals across their last seven matches, and they could be overwhelmed here.
Augsburg to win basement battle
Greuther Furth v Augsburg
Saturday 18 December, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video
Greuther Furth finally secured their first ever home win in the Bundesliga when they overcame Union Berlin, and they gave Borussia Dortmund one or two problems in the first half of their 3-0 defeat at Signal Iduna Park, but it’s still hard to escape the notion that they simply aren’t up to the necessary standard to survive at this level. That assertion is backed up by the fact that the Clover Leaves have collected just four points from 16 games, and frankly they need a miracle to even come close to survival from here on in. With no funds to make significant transfers in January, no-one expects a great escape.
Augsburg are one of the sides in danger of joining them in the second tier next season, but they have shown grit, determination and quality in recent games. Markus Weinzierl’s side won 2-0 at Köln, and then rode their luck in a 1-1 draw with RB Leipzig. The return of centre-backs Jeffrey Gouweleeuw and Reece Oxford has been vital, and midfielder Niklas Dorsch is showing why he was once on the books of Bayern.
Augsburg are 2.486/4 to win this, and I think that’s a big price against a side with such an awful record this season. Man for man, Augsburg are the better team, and they beat Bayern just a few weeks ago.
Source: Betfair German
