Bundesliga Tips: Strugglers to slip again

Foals to gallop to victory

Borussia Mönchengladbach v Greuther Fürth
Saturday 20 November, 14:30
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Greuther Fürth and their embattled coach Stefan Leitl have already made history in the Bundesliga this term, but not in the way they wanted. The Clover Leaves have made the worst-ever start to a Bundesliga campaign, taking a solitary point from their first 11 matches. Their Matchday 10 clash with Eintracht Frankfurt summed up how things are currently going – Fürth scored a stoppage-time leveller, but still went on to lose the match 2-1.

It’s hard not to have sympathy with Leitl and his players, as the club has effectively brought a water pistol to a gun battle. Even if they had kept their promotion-winning squad together, they still would have struggled to survive, but losing David Raum, Anton Stach and Sebastian Ernst before a ball was kicked was disastrous.

Borussia Mönchengladbach are unbeaten at home, and they have managed some eye-catching results at Borussia Park. They beat Bayern 5-0 in the DFB Cup, held them to a draw in the league and beat Borussia Dortmund 1-0. They have also managed home wins against relegation candidates Arminia Bielefeld and Bochum, so they have no trouble with the chaff either.

I can’t see Fürth laying a glove on the Foals here, so I’ll back the hosts -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at what seems a generous 1.824/5. Fürth have lost all six away games, and five of those defeats were by a margin of two goals or greater.

Nkunku to shine again

Hoffenheim v RB Leipzig
Saturday 20 November, 14:30
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When you think of the Bundesliga’s best players, you might instantly think of Robert Lewandowski or Erling Haaland. Manuel Neuer, Joshua Kimmich and Thomas Müller might also stake their claims, but few might think of Christopher Nkunku. However, the RB Leipzig forward has been on outstanding form for over a year, and it is remarkable that he has yet to truly catch the eye of France boss Didier Deschamps.

Nkunku has scored five goals and racked up three assists in the Bundesliga, while in the Champions League he has five goals already. Against Borussia Dortmund just before the international break, Nkunku played a starring role in a 2-1 win, scoring a goal and making the other.

Hoffenheim are a strong outfit at home, but they are flaky defensively (they have leaked 17 goals in 11 league games) and Nkunku should get time and space to play. I’ll put half a point on him to score at 3.259/4, and half a point on him to pick up an assist at 3.185/40. Even if one lands and the other doesn’t, we still make a tidy profit.

Dortmund to expose struggling Stuttgart

Borussia Dortmund v Stuttgart
Saturday 20 November, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

It was Borussia Dortmund’s extraordinary 5-1 home defeat to Stuttgart last season that shaped their season. Coach Lucien Favre was dumped, and caretaker Edin Terzic led his beloved BVB to a Champions League spot and DFB Cup glory. Terzic is now the club’s technical director, while his replacement Marco Rose is trying to keep the title push on track without star striker Erling Haaland.

Dortmund have lost at Freiburg, Borussia Mönchengladbach and RB Leipzig, but in the league they remain flawless at home. Die Schwarzgelben have won their last ten home games in the top flight, and seven of those victories have been by a margin of two goals or more.

The injury crisis that has gripped the club is slowly easing, and the return of influential left-back Raphael Guerreiro is welcome.

Stuttgart have also been hit hard by injuries, with key attacking players like Silas and Sasa Kalajdzic still out. The southern giants have won just twice, and they are looking to avoid a third straight defeat. On the road, Pellegrino Matarazzo’s side has lost five of the last nine in the league, including a 4-0 loss at Bayern, a 4-1 reverse at Augsburg and a 4-0 hammering at RB Leipzig.

Dortmund can take their revenge on Stuttgart here, and I’ll back them -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.9110/11.