After making an average of one point of profit per matchday so far, Kevin Hatchard’s back with another trio of picks from the Bundesliga.
Gladbach in a tailspin
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Eintracht Frankfurt
Wednesday 15 December, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports and Betfair Live Video
Earlier this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach demolished Bayern Munich 5-0 in the DFB Cup, handing the record champions their worst ever defeat in the competition. Fast forward a few short weeks, and the Foals are in crisis. Three straight defeats have seen 14 goals conceded, and the 6-0 defeat to Freiburg in the most recent home game was one of the worst performances in the club’s history.
Coach Adi Hütter, who cost the Foals 7.5 million euros when he was recruited from Eintracht Frankfurt, is under serious pressure. Some players barely seem to be trying, the team has no stability, and the defending at set plays in recent games has been nothing short of atrocious. Saturday’s 4-1 defeat at RB Leipzig left BMG just two points above the bottom three.
Hütter’s old club Frankfurt produced a sensational comeback on Sunday, as they recovered from 2-0 down to hammer Bayer Leverkusen 5-2. Two of those five goals came from set plays, and wing wizard Filip Kostic was in unplayable form. Oliver Glasner’s men finished top of their Europa League group, and they have won four of their last five in the Bundesliga.
With that kind of firepower, it’s not hard to see Frankfurt scoring at least a couple of goals, and you can back them to score Over 1.5 Goals at a surprisingly generous 2.68/5.
Fürth back down to Earth with a bump
Borussia Dortmund v Greuther Furth
Wednesday 15 December, 19:30
Live on Sky Sports and Betfair Live Video
Borussia Dortmund’s title challenge has been rocked in each of the last two matchdays. First they lost Der Klassiker 3-2 at home to Bayern Munich, and then they were held to a 1-1 draw at newly-promoted Bochum in a Ruhr derby. BVB are now six points behind Bayern in the title race, their Champions League campaign has come to an end, and coach Marco Rose has to find some consistency to save the season.
That said, Dortmund actually played pretty well against Bochum, racking up an Expected Goals figure of 2.68 according to Infogol, and they have won all of their Bundesliga home games apart from the critical one against Bayern. There have been some terrific displays at Signal Iduna Park, and the recent return to fitness of Erling Haaland is a huge boost.
Although Greuther Fürth have finally secured their first league win of the season, beating Union Berlin 1-0, they remain out of their depth at this level. They have conceded 46 goals in their first 15 league games, and have only scored 13. This hasn’t been down to coaching strife or an injury crisis – Fürth simply aren’t equipped to compete at this level.
Dortmund should be able to cut loose here, and I’ll back them -2.5 and -3.0 on the Asian Handicap at 1.8810/11. If Dortmund win by three, we pick up a half-win, and if they win by four or more, we get a full payout.
Arminia to fall short again
Arminia Bielefeld v Bochum
Tuesday 14 December, 19:30
Live on Betfair Live Video
Before the campaign started, I suggested that Arminia Bielefeld would suffer a case of second-season syndrome, and would be candidates for the drop. That is proving to be the case, and DSC’s 2-0 defeat at Hertha Berlin on Saturday left them seven points adrift of safety, and six adrift of third-bottom Augsburg. There is a serious danger of the bottom two being cut adrift this season.
Bielefeld simply don’t score enough goals. They have found the net just ten times in 17 outings, and none of their players have scored more than three league goals. Coach Frank Kramer has made Arminia tougher to beat since he arrived, and he kept the team up last season, but he hasn’t come close to making them dangerous in attack.
Bochum initially looked like they would struggle to adapt after winning promotion, but coach Thomas Reis has made them incredibly tough to overcome at the Ruhrstadion, and they are at least competitive on the road. They have already racked up 20 points from 15 games, and they have only lost seven times so far. They are closer to the top four than the bottom two.
Arminia haven’t won a single home game in the league this season, and since winning promotion, they have scored multiple goals in just three out of 25 Bundesliga matches at the Schuco Arena. I’ll back the visitors to avoid defeat here by backing them +0 & +0.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.824/5.
Source: Betfair German
