Bundesliga Tips: Felix and company to stay up in style

Magath on the cusp of success

Hertha Berlin v Mainz
Saturday 07 May, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports and Betfair Live Video

Given that Hertha Berlin have developed quite the reputation for coaching missteps in recent years, the decision to bring 68-year-old Felix Magath out of cold storage was a bold one. Fulham fans know “Quälix” as an eccentric who took them out of the Premier League and told Brede Hangeland to cure an injury by using a mixture of quark and motherly concern, but German football knows him as a winner. He was a European champion at club and international level as a player, and as a coach he won two doubles with Bayern and won an unlikely meisterschale with Wolfsburg in 2009.

Despite that cv and that known ability to galvanise underperforming and feckless players, there were no guarantees when Magath picked up the reins, and could still be work to do to avoid the drop. It may well be that by the time Hertha play on Saturday, they will be certain to stay out of the automatic relegation zone, but they could still be in danger of being caught by Stuttgart. Yes, Stuttgart have to go to Bayern, but the champions were awful last week against Mainz, and they could be distracted by lifting the league trophy. If Stuttgart lose and Arminia fail to win, Hertha will be safe at kick-off.

Hertha have taken seven points from their last three games, and they have won two of their last three at home. Their opponents Mainz beat Bayern last weekend, but their away form is atrocious (they have lost nine of their last 11), and they have little to play for here. I’ll happily back the hosts Draw No Bet at 1.8810/11.

Fürth farewell could be fun

Greuther Fürth v Borussia Dortmund
Saturday 07 May, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

Greuther Fürth’s relegation was a predictable one, and although they have competed a lot more vigorously since the turn of the year, they were never likely to mount a comeback after taking just a point from their first 14 games. Even if their promotion squad had remained intact, they’d have struggled, but the summer departures of David Raum (Hoffenheim) and Anton Stach (Mainz) robbed them of quality in key positions. Saturday will be emotional, as promotion-winning coach Stefan Leitl will take charge of the team in a home match for the last time, and the home fans will get their final taste of Bundesliga action for a while.

Borussia Dortmund haven’t yet locked down second spot, and last weekend they were stunned by Ruhr rivals Bochum, blowing a 3-2 lead late on to lose 4-3. Erling Haaland scored a hat-trick in a losing cause, and this could be his penultimate game before he leaves Die Schwarzgelben. It wasn’t all bad against Bochum – 17-year-old winger Jamie Bynoe-Gittens sparkled on his full Bundesliga debut, and Marco Rose’s men made a string of opportunities, only to be denied by excellent Bochum keeper Manuel Riemann.

I think we’ll get lots of goals here. Fürth lost 6-1 at home to RB Leipzig and 4-1 at home to Bayer Leverkusen, and they also went down 3-1 against Bayern. Over 3.5 Goals is trading at 1.9520/21, and that has landed in 10 of Dortmund’s last 16 Bundesliga matches.

Union can make Freiburg falter

Freiburg v Union Berlin
Saturday 07 May, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

This is a battle between two clubs that have defied football logic all season. Freiburg and Union are both in the mix for Champions League qualification with just two rounds of matches remaining, and depending on how results turn out, Freiburg’s Matchday 34 trip to face Bayer Leverkusen could end up being a Champions League playoff. Both clubs reached the semi-finals of the DFB Pokal, and while Freiburg reached the final, Union fell just short against RB Leipzig.

Freiburg’s topsy-turvy 4-3 win at southern rivals Hoffenheim last weekend kept their top-four dream alive, but they face stubborn opponents in Union. Urs Fischer’s men looked out of it a few weeks ago, but have responded with a run of four league wins and a draw. Another victory here would see them stay in the mix for a Champions League place going into the final set of matches.

Union have won their last two away games at Hertha and RB Leipzig, and I just think the sides are closer together in ability than the market suggests here. Freiburg are 1.9520/21 to take the win, but they have only won five of their last 11 at home in the top flight, and I think Union will be able to at least partially nullify their set-piece threat.

I’ll lay Freiburg at 1.9520/21, but I’ll also back Over 2.5 Goals here at 1.84/5. Both teams have to go for the win really, and an Over 2.5 Goals bet has landed in Freiburg’s last six competitive games. It has also come through in seven of Union’s last ten away matches in league and cup.