Bundesliga Tips: Champs to win a thriller

Bayern Munich v Mainz
Saturday 11 December, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

The last few days have reinforced the idea that not only are Bayern Munich Germany’s best team, but they are serious contenders to win the Champions League as well. They crushed Barcelona 3-0 in midweek, causing the Catalan giants to miss out on the knockout phase for the first time in two decades. Last weekend, Julian Nagelsmann’s side won a chaotic Klassiker 3-2 in Dortmund. Yes, there was controversy about the penalty that ultimately decided the contest, but few could argue against Bayern warranting the victory.

Robert Lewandowski scored twice in Der Klassiker, and now has 26 goals in 25 games against his old employers. While the back line looked vulnerable at Signal Iduna Park (Dayot Upamecano looked particularly unnerved by the presence of Norwegian sensation Erling Haaland), the midfield held up without Joshua Kimmich, which is just as well because he’ll miss the rest of the year with a lung issue. Thomas Müller was, well, very Thomas Müller. Powered by a competitive spirit that could give the world a source of clean energy if the scientists could find a way, Müller charged down a casual Mats Hummels to create the opening goal for Lewandowski, and then against Barcelona he grabbed the opening goal. He remains a true force of nature.

Bayern lost to Mainz at the MEWA Arena last season, and there’s every chance that they’ll have to work hard to beat Bo Svensson’s side here. The Dane has turned a team that was destined for relegation into a side that is now pushing for European qualification. If you look at Expected Points (effectively the results teams should have got in games based on their underlying numbers), Mainz should be second in the table, which is truly remarkable. Last weekend, they hammered Champions League participants Wolfsburg 3-0.

I still think Bayern will prove too strong for Mainz here, but I think the visitors will score. German U21 international forward Jonathan Burkardt is in the form of his life, and Karim Onisiwo is playing well beside him. Both players are quick, so expect them to get in behind Bayern’s high defensive line, and Burkardt scored home and away against Bayern last season.

I’ll back Bayern to win and Both Teams To Score on the Sportsbook at 2.111/10

Tony the tiger can maul Augsburg

Köln v Augsburg
Friday 10 December, 19:30
Live on Sky Sports and Betfair Live Video

Although supporter numbers are being restricted in the Bundesliga as COVID-19 cases rise, and some grounds aren’t permitted to have any fans at all, Köln will still get some support on Friday night (at time of writing, 15,000 fans are permitted to attend), and that has been a big factor in the Billy Goats’ excellent home form. Köln has always been a club that operates in an emotional maelstrom, and new coach Steffen Baumgart has been able to harness that energy. His side demolished local rivals Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-1 in the Rhineland derby a fortnight ago, and Köln have won four and drawn three of their seven home matches in the Bundesliga.

Veteran striker Anthony Modeste has been reinvigorated by Baumgart, and has scored ten goals in league and cup. Even though the 33-year-old hasn’t scored in his last three matches, I’m surprised to see him priced at 2.68/5 on the Sportsbook to score at any time. Augsburg are without first-team centre-backs Reece Oxford and Felix Uduokhai, and they have leaked 11 goals across their last five away games at this level. I’ll keep things simple and back Modeste to find the net.

Wolves can rediscover their bite

Wolfsburg v Stuttgart
Saturday 11 December, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports and Betfair Live Video

Wolfsburg’s European adventure ended in ignominy and failure on Wednesday, as they were swept aside 3-0 by French champions Lille. Not only did the Wolves fail to make progress in the Champions League, but they tumbled out of European competition entirely. New coach Florian Kohfeldt was playing catch-up after the disappointing work of his predecessor Mark van Bommel, but after a run of four straight defeats in all competitions, the former Bremen boss knows he has to turn things around quickly.

Stuttgart might be the perfect opponents against whom to end that disappointing run. The Swabians blew a 2-0 lead in a 2-2 draw with Hertha Berlin last weekend, and they have won just twice in their last 15 Bundesliga away games. They have conceded at least two goals in nine of those 15 road matches, and I think they might do so again here. Lukas Nmecha is expected to return in attack alongside Wout Weghorst, and I think those two can cause havoc against a Stuttgart side that has leaked 25 goals in 14 league games.

I’ll back Wolfsburg to score Over 1.5 Goals at 1.84/5.