Bundesliga Tips: Both teams can Streich

Bedlam in the Black Forest

Freiburg v Wolfsburg
Saturday 12 March, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

In December 2011, Freiburg were in crisis mode. They had endured a disastrous start to life without coach Robin Dutt, who had swapped the Black Forest for Bayer Leverkusen. Dutt’s replacement Marcus Sorg floundered, and was dismissed. The club turned to his assistant, former Freiburg youth team coach Christian Streich. He didn’t want the job initially, but was persuaded to take on the role and help the club.

Over a decade later, Streich is still at the helm, and he continues to produce miracles. Freiburg are only two points adrift of a Champions League spot with just nine matchdays left, and last weekend they were moments away from an excellent win at RB Leipzig, only for Angelino to strike a late leveller. They have reached the semi-finals of the DFB Cup, and have a winnable tie against second-tier side Hamburg. Streich has hit many heights as Freiburg boss, but this term could provide the greatest thrill of all.

While Freiburg have been punching above their weight, Wolfsburg have been drastically underperforming this term, but the winter acquisitions of Danish forward Jonas Wind and former Freiburg star Max Kruse have given the side a much-needed lift. Last weekend’s gritty 1-0 win over Union Berlin means Florian Kohfeldt’s team has now collected ten points from the last five matches, and they are probably just a couple of wins from safety. With Lukas Nmecha back after a broken ankle, and Kruse and Wind looking sharp, Wolfsburg suddenly have plenty of firepower at their disposal.

I fancy BTTS here at 1.9210/11. Both teams have scored in 15 of Freiburg’s last 22 competitive games, including eight of their last 12 on home soil. Wolfsburg suddenly look like a goalscoring threat again, but they have managed just three clean sheets in their last 16 games.

If Mainz play, they’re worth opposing

Augsburg v Mainz
Saturday 12 March, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

Before we get started on this game, I should warn you that it might not happen at all. Mainz have had a severe COVID-19 outbreak, their game against Borussia Dortmund last Sunday was postponed, and they’ve applied to have this one moved as well. However, Augsburg are insistent they want the game played or moved to Sunday, and in general the DFL do try everything in their power to get matches on.

If the game does go ahead, Augsburg are worth backing Draw No Bet at 1.845/6. They were grimly excellent in last Friday’s battling 1-0 win at Arminia Bielefeld, a performance that saw why this club has never been relegated since it first came into the league 11 years ago. Veteran Daniel Caligiuri grabbed the winner, the 49th Bundesliga goal of the 34-year-old’s impressive career.

Augsburg have beaten Bayern and Union Berlin on home soil, and have also held Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig to draws, do I’ll happily get them onside against a Mainz team that is poor on the road even when it’s at full strength. Mainz have lost eight of their last ten top-flight matches on their travels, and they have only scored multiple goals once in that spell.

Nkunku to strike at fortress Furth

Greuther Furth v RB Leipzig
Sunday 13 March, 18:30
Live on Sky Sports and Betfair Live Video

This game is being played on Sunday because RB Leipzig were expected to be playing in the Europa League, but they were given a bye against Spartak Moscow due to Russia’s attack on Ukraine, and so have had a free week to prepare for this trip to rock-bottom Greuther Furth.

Leipzig needed a late leveller to snatch a point against Freiburg last week, but they are still on course for Champions League qualification, and could still win the Europa League and the DFB Cup. They’ll host Union Berlin in the cup semi-finals, and no-one will want to face Domenico Tedesco’s side in the quarter-finals of the UEL. Leipzig have lost just twice since Tedesco replaced Jesse Marsch, and one of those defeats was in a highly commendable performance against Bayern.

Furth have gone unbeaten in their last six home games in the Bundesliga, but that run should end here. They have struggled against the big hitters this term, losing 3-1 and 4-1 to Bayern, 7-1 at Bayer Leverkusen, 6-3 at home to Hoffenheim, 4-1 at Leipzig and 3-0 at Borussia Dortmund. Stefan Leitl is doing a fine job with extremely limited resources, but that quality gap is stark.

Keep an eye on the team news, but if he starts, Christopher Nkunku is a great price in the To Score market at 2.3611/8. The Frenchman has scored in eight of his 12 games in all competitions, and he has 25 goals in 37 appearances.