Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Bundesliga result and scoreline predictions ahead of significant games in the bottom half…
“Union have only conceded 20 across the entire season, and will surely look at this game as an opportunity to build on an away record of one win from six which is keeping them just outside the Champions League spots.”
Köln to keep selves in top half
Köln v Augsburg
Friday, 19:30
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A four-match unbeaten run has kept Köln safely in mid-table, and they can extend that run against an Augsburg side who will feel unfortunate to have lost to Bochum last time out. The visitors remain in relegation trouble, sitting in the play-off spot as things stand, and Markus Weinzierl’s side will be concerned by an away average of 2.24 xGA per game.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1
Bayern’s title push to continue
Bayern Munich v Mainz
Saturday, 14:30
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Bayern’s win in last week’s Klassiker confirmed their dominance this season, even if it didn’t always look like a fait accompli, and it’s hard to see anyone stopping them in a one-off game. Mainz should put them to the test, having led at the Allianz Arena last season and beaten Bayern on home soil, but Infogol’s model still backs the champions to claim what would be a third straight league win.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-1 @ 10.009/1
Dortmund to stop Bochum’s winning run
Bochum v Borussia Dortmund
Saturday,, 14:30
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Bochum have been impressive at home since winning promotion, but Dortmund looked out for blood in their midweek win over Besiktas. Marco Rose’s side haven’t been as strong on the road as they have at home this season, but Infogol’s model still expects them to overcome opponents who are coming into the game off the back of successive if not wholly convincing victories.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-3 @ 11.5021/2
Freiburg and Hoffenheim set for unpredictable game
Freiburg v Hoffenheim
Saturday,, 14:30
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Freiburg ended their winless run in style last week by hitting six first-half goals against Borussia Mönchengladbach, but now they’re up against a Hoffenheim side who also scored six in their last away game. Infogol’s model can find almost nothing to choose between two teams who haven’t left the field with a draw in more than six weeks, so this may come down to fine margins.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.5019/2 or 1-2 @ 11.5021/2
Hertha to win scrap between strugglers
Hertha Berlin v Arminia Bielefeld
Saturday,, 14:30
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Hertha and Arminia finished level on points last season, and the early goings this term suggest there won’t be much more between them this time around either. Hertha are expected to have the edge at home, though – thanks in part to Arminia’s 0.88 xGF average – and victory for the hosts will be a boost for new manager Tayfun Korkut as he aims to establish himself at the Olympiastadion.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 9.6017/2 or 2-1 @ 9.208/1
Managerless Leipzig to sneak a victory
RB Leipzig v Borussia Mönchengladbach
Saturday, 14:30
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Last weekend’s worrying defeat at Union Berlin saw Leipzig part ways with manager Jesse Marsch, and interim boss Achim Beierlorzer got off to a perfect start against Manchester City in the Champions League. A 1.97 xGF return was not matched by results under Marsch, but Die Roten Bullen will feel they can get on the board against opponents who have conceded 10 across their last two games.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1
Wolfsburg to recover after tough spell
Wolfsburg v Stuttgart
Saturday, 17:30
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Back-to-back defeats against Dortmund and Mainz have left Wolfsburg at risk of ending 2021 in the bottom half of the table, but they can keep their fate in their own hands by beating Stuttgart. Last season’s corresponding game ended 1-0 to the hosts, and Stuttgart’s 2.12 xGA average away from home will not fill them with belief that they can claim a first road win since coming from behind against Gladbach in May.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1
Union to claim rare away win at doomed Fürth
Greuther Fürth v Union Berlin
Sunday, 14:30
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The Bundesliga’s bottom side have averaged 2.68 xGA away across their last three matches, but the actual goal numbers are even worse with 17 conceded over that spell. Visitors Union have only conceded 20 across the entire season, and will surely look at this game as an opportunity to build on an away record of one win from six which is keeping them just outside the Champions League spots.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 8.808/1
Frankfurt to threaten top half with win over Leverkusen
Eintracht Frankfurt v Bayer Leverkusen
Sunday, 16:30
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These two teams are an exercise in the fine margins at play in the Bundesliga, with close proximity in the xG table not matched by the real standings where Leverkusen are nine points ahead of Sunday’s opponents. That said, Infogol gives Oliver Glasner’s side the upper hand despite a tough-to-take defeat at Hoffenheim last weekend where three of the hosts’ six shots found the net.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 12.0011/1
Source: Betfair German
