After making a profitable start to the Bundesliga season, Kevin Hatchard’s back with another trio of picks.
Furth to keep struggling
Mainz v Greuther Furth
Saturday 28 August, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video
There haven’t been too many hiccups since Bo Svensson returned to Mainz to take up the coaching reins of the senior team, but last Saturday’s 2-0 reverse at newly-promoted Bochum was described by the Dane as the worst performance of his reign. It was the total opposite of the committed and organised display shown in the 1-0 win over RB Leipzig – challenges were lost all over the field, and Gerritt Holtmann’s solo goal (he wandered past half the team before scoring the opener) was the ultimate example of that laissez-faire approach.
Svensson will demand a response, and the return of several players from quarantine will help the cause.
It’s worth noting Mainz’s excellent home record under Svensson: they’ve beaten Leipzig twice, and have also seen off the champions Bayern, delaying their coronation last term with a 2-1 win. Overall, the ZeroFivers have won five of their last ten Bundesliga matches at the Mewa Arena, which is a decent record for a side that battled relegation throughout last season.
Greuther Furth opened up their campaign with a 5-1 hammering at Stuttgart, and then were held 1-1 by an Arminia Bielefeld team that played the final quarter of the game with ten men. Their defensive resources have been stretched by a knee injury for former HSV defender Gideon Jung, one of the few Furth players with significant Bundesliga experience.
I’ll keep this simple and back Mainz to win at 1.758/11.
Ruhr rumble should be fun
Borussia Dortmund v Hoffenheim
Friday 27 August, 19:30
Live on Sky Sports Mix and Betfair Live Video
Perhaps the surprising thing about Borussia Dortmund’s 2-1 reverse at unfashionable Freiburg last Saturday was that no-one was really surprised. It’s almost become a cliché for BVB to clumsily lose an away game against a team from outside the top six, and they’ve now been defeated at the Schwarzwaldstadion in back-to-back campaigns.
Erling Haaland had a rare off-day in attack, errors were made in defence, and chances slid by without being taken. No-one is suggesting Marco Rose’s first season as coach is unravelling yet, but he really could do with a win against Hoffenheim on Friday night.
Hoffenheim have made a strong start to their campaign. They won 4-0 at Augsburg, and then drew a superb game 2-2 against Union Berlin. The talismanic Andrej Kramaric has been typically excellent, racking up four assists in just two top-flight outings. Former Dortmund winger Jacob Bruun Larsen has scored in both of his league appearances so far, and it could be a breakout season for the Dane.
However, it’s worth noting that Union created lots of chances against Hoffenheim, who struggled to contain the pairing of Max Kruse and Taiwo Awoniyi. That doesn’t bode well for their attempts to cage Haaland and company.
Hoffenheim have done well at Dortmund recently (they drew 2-2 last term and won 4-0 the season before), but I think they’ll be overwhelmed here by a Dortmund side that scored five goals at home in their Bundesliga opener against Eintracht Frankfurt. Dortmund have won their last five Bundesliga home matches, and in four of those, both teams have scored. That’s the route I’ll go down at 5/4 on the Sportsbook.
Bashed-up Foals to stumble again
Union Berlin v Borussia Mönchengladbach
Sunday 29 August, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video
It’s hard to imagine how last Saturday’s Rhineland derby at Bayer Leverkusen could’ve been any worse for Borussia Mönchengladbach and their new coach Adi Hütter. The Foals conceded a comedic own goal in the third minute, lost four players to injury or illness, and ended up losing 4-0. It was a complete and utter disaster.
Rampaging right-back Stefan Lainer has a broken leg, Marcus Thuram has damaged a knee ligament and defender Matthias Ginter has COVID-19. Swiss striker Breel Embolo is short of full fitness because of a thigh problem, and the only good news is that forward Alassane Plea has made a surprisingly swift recovery from the knee injury that he suffered against Bayer.
At time of writing, Union Berlin hadn’t played their Conference League game against Finnish side KuPS, but it’s safe to assume the Bundesliga side protected a 4-0 first-leg lead. Urs Fischer’s team has ground out a couple of top-flight draws so far against Bayer Leverkusen and Hoffenheim, and I think they can avoid defeat here.
Union haven’t lost a home game in the league since Matchday One of last season, they have one of the division’s most promising attacking duos in Taiwo Awoniyi and Max Kruse, and they have made enough quality signings to cope with a demanding European campaign.
I’ll back the hosts +0 on the Asian Handicap at 1.8810/11, which means we win if they win, and a draw returns our stake.
Source: Betfair German
