Basement battle to fall flat
Paderborn v Werder Bremen
Saturday 13 June, 14:30
Live on BT Sport and Betfair Live Video
This clash between the Bundesliga’s bottom two features one club that probably expected to be in the dropzone at this stage, and one that definitely didn’t.
Paderborn refused to overspend chasing a top-tier dream, and they have merely enjoyed the adventure. Coach Steffen Baumgart has stuck to the attacking principles that took the club from the third division to the first in the space of two seasons, and a group of inexperienced players have battled gamely. Just four of SCP’s 30 Bundesliga games have ended in victory, and if they lose this weekend and other results go against them, they could be relegated with three matchdays left.
Werder’s fortunes have fluctuated wildly since the restart. They were shredded 4-1 at home by Bayer Leverkusen in the first game back, then had a seven-point surge over the next three matches, but the last two outings have delivered sobering blows. A 3-0 home defeat to Eintracht Frankfurt featured a total second-half collapse, and a toothless attacking display was largely to blame for their 1-0 loss to Wolfsburg.
These are statistically the two worst attacking teams in the top flight. Werder have averaged just a goal a game, while Paderborn haven’t scored more than once in any of their last seven games. I’m pleasantly surprised to see Under 2.5 Goals trading at [2.2], and I think that’s the way to go.
Bruno to bash Frankfurt again
Hertha Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt
Saturday 13 June, 14:30
Live on BT Sport and Betfair Live Video
Eintracht Frankfurt’s hopes of salvaging a disappointing campaign with another DFB Cup success were dashed in midweek, as they went down 2-1 at Bayern Munich in the semi-finals. The Eagles put everything into the 90 minutes, and one wonders what is left in the tank ahead of this weekend’s action. Adi Hütter’s team have lost ten of their 15 away games this season, and I think that’ll inflate to 11 out of 16 on Saturday.
Hertha ran Borussia Dortmund close last Saturday, but their 1-0 defeat was their first loss since the restart, and therefore their first under new coach Bruno Labbadia. The defence has looked very solid and organised, with former Celtic and Manchester City centre-back Dedryck Boyata in outstanding form. Midfielder Vladimir Darida has broken the Bundesliga record for distance covered in one match in successive appearances, and in attack there is plenty of firepower, especially if talismanic Brazilian Matheus Cunha returns after concussion.
Labbadia is unbeaten in all 11 of his clashes with Frankfurt as a coach, and while that has little bearing on this clash, it’ll just give his players a smidgen more belief. Hertha have won both of their home games under him, and have kept clean sheets in both.
I’ll back Hertha to win at [2.16].
Returning Haaland can play his part
Fortuna Düssledorf v Borussia Dortmund
Saturday 13 June, 14:30
Live on BT Sport and Betfair Live Video
Borussia Dortmund are on course to qualify for the Champions League, and a victory at Fortuna Düsseldorf could see them clinch a top-four spot if other results go their way. A win would also push the title race into at least the midweek round of fixtures.
Fortuna have altogether different concerns, as they are in the relegation playoff spot. Their failure to beat Hoffenheim last week could return to haunt them – they played against ten men for more than 80 minutes, but couldn’t force a winner in a 2-2 draw. They have struggled against the big boys this season – they were hammered 4-0 and 5-0 by Bayern Munich, and at home they have lost 3-0 to RB Leipzig, 4-1 to Borussia Monchengladbach and 3-1 to Bayer Leverkusen. When they faced Dortmund at Signal Iduna Park, they were torn apart in a 5-0 defeat.
Dortmund have star striker Erling Haaland back in their ranks after injury, and they have won five of their six Bundesliga away games in 2020. I think they’ll win this with room to spare.
Source: Betfair German
