Gladbach to earn crucial win
Bayern to clinch title
Werder Bremen vs Bayern Munich
Tuesday, 19:30
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A big game for both. Werder pulled themselves level on points with Fortuna after a 5-1 win over Paderborn, a win that also reduced the goal difference gap to a single goal. Bayern Munich are a win away from securing yet another title, and rightly so. They have been so superior all season long according to xG, with their process simply ridiculous (2.8 xGF, 1.2 xGA per game). Bayern should get their title clinching win here (77%), though Werder will have a go, and get on the scoresheet in a high-scoring game (71% O2.5, 55% BTTS) – 1-3.
Schalke mini-revival to be ended
Frankfurt vs Schalke
Wednesday, 17:30
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Frankfurt bounced back impressively from a 2-0 defeat to Mainz, romping to a 4-1 success over Hertha Berlin thanks to another strong attacking display. Schalke appear to have stopped the rot, with a draw against Bayer Leverkusen the second successive game in which they have avoided defeat. Their performance was much better, but they continue to have issues creating chances, and haven’t generated over 1.0 non-pen xGF in any game since the restart. Frankfurt are fancied to get the win (57%), with goals likely whenever the Eagles play (58% O2.5, 56% BTTS) – 2-1.
Hoffenheim to reignite top six chances
Augsburg vs Hoffenheim
Wednesday, 19:30
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Augsburg picked up an invaluable win at Mainz last weekend, meaning they are just one more win from being mathematically safe. Hoffenheim were beaten by RB Leipzig last Friday, though their performance was actually pretty good, winning the xG battle. They are an entertaining team to follow, with chances at both ends the norm when TSG take to the field (1.61 xGF, 1.86 xGA per game). Goals are expected (72% O2.5, 72% BTTS), with Hoffenheim fancied to edge to a win (41%) – 1-2.
Narrow but crucial Bayer win
Wednesday, 19:30
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Bayer were surprisingly held by Schalke last weekned, and that was the fourth successive game in which they lost the xG battle, suggesting that performances are not to the same standard as prior to and just after the break. FC Koln are yet to win since the restart, as their form has deteriorated post-break, but on the whole their performances remain to a mid-table level. They pose a threat to Bayer in attack, but are extremely vulnerable defensively (1.57 xGF, 1.54 xGA per game). Bayer are taken to edge to a win (52%) in a goal-laden game (69% O2.5, 67% BTTS) – 2-1.
Comfortable Dortmund win
Dortmund vs Mainz
Wednesday, 19:30
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Dortmund once again edge to a win last weekend, needing a very late Erling Haaland winner to get past Fortuna. It was once again though, an excellent defensive display, with BVB allowing an average of 0.5 xGA per game since the restart. Mainz were beaten at home by Augsburg last weekend, meaning they remain just three points above Fortuna and now Werder. Defensively they have been a shambles this season (1.87 xGA per game), and BVB should expose them again here in a comfortable and high-scoring (64% O2.5) home win (66%) – 3-0.
RBL to pile pressure on Rosler and Fortuna
RB Leipzig vs Fortuna Dusseldorf
Wednesday, 19:30
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RB Leipzig continued their streak of winning away and drawing at home since the restart, winning 2-0 at Hoffenheim. Their performances at home have, on the whole, been better than the results suggest since the return, and over the season they have averaged 2.3 xGF and 1.4 xGA per game at the Red Bull Arena. Fortuna were left heartbroken last weekend as they conceded a very late winner to Dortmund. They are now above Werder on goal difference only, so every game is crucial for them. Unfortunately, away from home this season they have been the worst team in the league, collecting just 11 points on their travels and posting a poor 1.0 xGF and 2.2 xGA per game when on the road. RBL should get a home win here (82%), in a game with plenty of goals (74% O2.5, 74% BTTS) – 3-1.
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Source: Betfair German